Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T08:44:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x348f…b50e politics 56 markets active 1h ago coverage 268d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate36%20W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$69now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$2
14 days−$2
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 38% −$2
other 22% +$1
politics 18% $0
economics 6% −$1
culture 5% $0
crypto 4% $0
sports 4% $0
tech 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.0% -10.5% 0% 0% -11.1%
≤30d 10 -2.8% -12.1% 30% 0% -10.2%
≤90d 10 -2.8% -12.1% 30% 0% -10.2%
all 55 -0.1% -9.6% 36% 2% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 2% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 2% -18.4%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

268d coverage
Net worth$69
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses20 / 35
Open positions1
Markets (closed)55 / 56
History coverage268d
Avg bet$17
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 55 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? No 61¢ 61¢ $69 $69 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $6 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $62 −$2 -3%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $41 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 26 $56 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $4 −$1 -29%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $38 +$3 +7%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 24 $57 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 24 $66 −$2 -3%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Jan 31 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $1 $0 +3%
Will the U.S. take over Gaza in 2025? Jan 31 $16 $0 +2%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Dec 18 $24 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Nov 28 $8 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Nov 28 $26 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Kevin Hassett as next Fed Chair in 2025? Nov 04 $12 −$1 -6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after December 2025 meeting? Oct 31 $6 $0 +0%
Will Polymarket US go live in 2025? Oct 28 $6 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31? Oct 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will LLA hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Oct 26 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump meet with Nicolás Maduro in 2025? Oct 25 $6 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit Japan in 2025? Oct 24 $5 $0 +1%
Will Rodrigo Paz Pereira win by 5–10%? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 22 $5 $0 +7%
Will Emmanuel Macron be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 13 $5 $0 +0%
Will Evelyn Matthei win the Chilean presidential election? Oct 13 $5 $0 -1%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 12 $6 $0 -7%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $6 $0 +0%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 11 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 11 $5 $0 +9%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Oct 08 $2 $0 +22%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 08 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 07 $14 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Oct 06 $14 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by October 31? Oct 06 $12 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 06 $2 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2800 in October? Oct 05 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 02 $8 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from September 23 to September 30, Sep 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2025 National League Championship? Sep 30 $22 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE? Sep 30 $1 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 30 $1 $0 -10%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Sep 29 $21 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 29 $1 $0 -4%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 28 $24 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 61¢ $69 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 3h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $28 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $26 13h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 96¢ $54 17h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $10 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 86¢ $31 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 86¢ $41 31h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $0 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $4 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 5¢ $2 35h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 6¢ $9 37h
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 97¢ $4 22d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $36 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $4 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab SELL No 99¢ $16 23d
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab BUY No 98¢ $56 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $0 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 23d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $41 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $24 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $14 24d
Iran leadership change by June 30? SELL No 90¢ $57 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $68.93 · official $68.93 (match) · 186 history records