Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:34:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3495…0b3b other 33 markets active 0h ago coverage 196d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$328 (+1%) realized +$377 · open −$49
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate52%16W / 15L
Whale WR38%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$884per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$108now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$161
7 days+$1,241
14 days+$1,286
30 days+$1,281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 73% −$799
crypto 26% +$1,054
politics 1% $0
world 0% −$5
finance 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-19.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +5.5% -4.6% 40% 20% +0.5%
≤30d 10 +2.9% -6.9% 60% 20% -3.7%
≤90d 11 +2.6% -7.2% 55% 18% -3.8%
all 31 -10.6% -19.1% 52% 6% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.1% 6% -8.5%
10% -26.9% 0% -17.3%
15% -33.9% 0% -25.3%
20% -40.4% 0% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 78% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 38% (≥$1,123) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -18% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$86 vs −$83 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

196d coverage
Net worth$108
Realized+$377
Unrealized−$49
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses16 / 15
Whale WR (big bets)38%
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage196d
Avg bet$884
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 50¢ 99¢ $50 $99 +$49 (+99%)
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? No 0¢ 0¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+0%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? Yes 50¢ 1¢ $50 $1 −$49 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? Jun 17 $2,153 +$166 +8%
Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027? Jun 17 $1,299 −$2 -0%
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? Jun 17 $1,229 −$3 -0%
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $1,209 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? Jun 13 $5,360 +$1,080 +20%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? Jun 08 $37 +$8 +22%
Tea FDV above $200M one day after launch Jun 04 $7,253 +$36 +0%
Tea FDV above $300M one day after launch Jun 04 $823 +$1 +0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $96 −$24 -25%
Over $3M committed to the Printr public sale? Jun 01 $506 +$19 +4%
Will the Democrats win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 07 $400 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of March? Mar 18 $5 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by March 15? Mar 14 $5 $0 +4%
US forces enter Iran by March 14? Mar 14 $5 $0 +7%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 14 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Paradex FDV above $750M one day after launch? Mar 08 $15 $0 +0%
Will Paradex launch a token on March 5? Mar 06 $5 $0 +1%
Israel strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Mar 05 $4 −$4 -100%
Over $15M committed to the Fabric public sale? Feb 14 $10 $0 +1%
Aztec FDV above $500M one day after launch? Feb 14 $1,190 −$999 -84%
Will Solana dip to $30 in January? Jan 20 $516 −$1 -0%
Over $26M committed to the Space public sale? Jan 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 16 $1,062 −$1 -0%
Will Trove launch a token by March 31, 2026? Jan 15 $1,123 −$1 -0%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Jan 14 $562 −$1 -0%
Over $30M committed to the Trove public sale? Jan 11 $560 +$2 +0%
Over $30M committed to the Ranger public sale? Jan 11 $546 +$15 +3%
Over $10M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 07 $494 +$52 +10%
Over $100M committed to the Infinex public sale? Jan 05 $49 $0 +0%
Base FDV above $2B one day after launch? Jan 05 $179 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY No 0¢ $8 23m
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $13 1h
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $2,306 1h
Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,038 1h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,227 1h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,333 1h
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,209 1h
Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027? SELL Yes 100¢ $259 1h
Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 25h
Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,199 25h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,199 25h
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,199 25h
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $20 33h
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $946 2d
Will o1 launch a token by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 2d
Will o1 launch a token by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $10 2d
Will o1 launch a token by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $1,381 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 92¢ $1,789 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 92¢ $2,624 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 92¢ $211 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 92¢ $211 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 92¢ $211 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 92¢ $552 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 92¢ $211 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 92¢ $211 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 92¢ $211 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in June? SELL Yes 92¢ $211 3d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $1,072 5d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? BUY No 88¢ $7 7d
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 90% by June 30? BUY No 89¢ $174 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $107.72 · official $107.72 (match) · 243 history records