Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T04:59:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3496…984d other 164 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,924 (+1%) realized +$1,924 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate19%31W / 132L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown34%max
Avg bet$1,240per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$15est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$649now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$25
14 days−$39
30 days−$250
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% +$1,974
politics 37% −$93
sports 8% −$18
economics 3% −$5
culture 2% −$4
crypto 1% +$7
world 1% +$13
tech 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 37 -5.5% -14.5% 8% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 82 -0.6% -10.1% 9% 4% -8.3%
all 163 -3.1% -12.4% 19% 10% -8.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 10% -8.7%
10% -20.7% 10% -17.4%
15% -28.4% 8% -25.4%
20% -35.4% 6% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 81% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,574) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -6% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$99 vs −$9 · ×10.9 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.58 per $1 lost it wins $2.58
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$649
Realized+$1,924
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)19%
Wins / losses31 / 132
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$15
Open positions1
Markets (closed)163 / 164
History coverage165d
Avg bet$1,240
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown34%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 163 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 99¢ 99¢ $649 $649 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 23 $983 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $2,019 −$3 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $1,727 −$3 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $5,543 −$6 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 22 $3,433 −$4 -0%
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? Jun 20 $832 −$1 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $3,997 −$5 -0%
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 17 $941 −$1 -0%
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $1,346 −$2 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $1,099 −$2 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 15 $6,023 −$8 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $2,102 −$3 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? Jun 12 $444 +$3 +1%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 12 $1,261 −$1 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $2,807 −$3 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $949 −$1 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,751 −$2 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $1,046 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,410 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 07 $1,417 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $2,176 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $3,468 −$4 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,665 −$3 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $84 −$84 -100%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,385 −$2 -0%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 03 $85 −$85 -100%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 02 $1,890 −$3 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in May? Jun 02 $459 +$3 +1%
Will Solana reach $120 in May? Jun 02 $557 +$3 +1%
Will Eric Swalwell win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $606 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $2,086 −$3 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $3,614 −$4 -0%
Will Toni Atkins win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 28 $1,145 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 27 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 27 $2,914 −$3 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 26 $2,513 −$4 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $2,760 −$4 -0%
Canadiens vs. Hurricanes May 25 $67 −$67 -100%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,504 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 22 $1,141 −$1 -0%
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $2,255 −$2 -0%
Atlanta Braves vs. Miami Marlins May 22 $56 +$41 +73%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $4,590 −$5 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 10 $1,610 −$2 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $1,655 −$2 -0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 10 $1,686 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 09 $3,189 −$4 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 09 $1,615 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $3,831 −$4 -0%
Will Byron Donalds win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 08 $1,281 −$2 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $649 1h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $256 20h
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $256 22h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $899 25h
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $900 26h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $574 43h
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $575 44h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $798 46h
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $799 47h
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $469 2d
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $469 2d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? SELL No 100¢ $831 3d
Will Gabriel Diallo be the 2026 Men’s Wimbledon winner? BUY No 100¢ $832 3d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,283 6d
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,285 6d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $940 6d
Will the Las Vegas Raiders win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $941 6d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,150 7d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,152 7d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,344 8d
Will Valérie Pécresse win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,346 8d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $1,097 8d
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $1,099 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,366 8d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,368 9d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,052 10d
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,053 10d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $877 11d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $878 11d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1T? BUY Yes 99¢ $444 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $648.80 · official $648.80 (match) · 539 history records