Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T19:04:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x3496…e3c3 world 36 markets active 1h ago coverage 535d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$7 (-0%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate44%15W / 19L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$70per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$1
14 days−$1
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$5
other 34% $0
sports 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +2.8% -7.0% 50% 10% -9.4%
≤30d 26 -3.2% -12.4% 42% 12% -9.1%
≤90d 31 -2.6% -11.9% 42% 10% -9.3%
all 34 -3.8% -13.0% 44% 12% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 12% -9.8%
10% -21.3% 6% -18.4%
15% -28.9% 6% -26.3%
20% -35.9% 6% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 52% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

535d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses15 / 19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)34 / 36
History coverage535d
Avg bet$70
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 34 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Yes 27¢ 28¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+2%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? No 55¢ 54¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $46 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $7 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $3 $0 +12%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $41 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 16 $5 $0 +10%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 15 $94 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $60 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $84 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 13 $42 $0 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $5 $0 +7%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $18 −$4 -23%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $62 −$1 -2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $4 +$3 +82%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $57 $0 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $44 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $45 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $2 $0 +2%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $8 $0 +0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $48 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 27 $17 −$1 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 25 $42 +$2 +6%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $44 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 23 $38 +$6 +15%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 23 $42 −$1 -1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 23 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 21 $12 −$1 -6%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $542 $0 -0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $246 $0 +0%
Bill Clinton divorce by June 30? May 13 $247 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 12 $19 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 11 $469 +$1 +0%
Northern Kentucky vs. Green Bay Feb 15 $16 −$16 -100%
Ole Miss vs. South Carolina Feb 13 $9 +$5 +52%
Will Christian McCaffrey be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 07 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $5 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $17 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $39 1h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $46 8h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $46 9h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $3 14h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 18h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 24h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 8¢ $3 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $26 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $41 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL No 11¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY No 10¢ $4 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $16 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $30 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $46 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $3 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $2 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $15 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 74¢ $41 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $16 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $10 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 75¢ $16 4d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $42 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.35 · official $0.28 (match) · 134 history records