Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T16:31:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x3499…713c
crypto · 242 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$22 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$17 · open +$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$165
Realized+$17
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses227 / 6
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)233 / 242
History coverage8d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day29.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 9 History 233 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$8
14 days+$17
30 days+$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ralph Norman win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 99¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rom Reddy win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Nancy Mace win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican primary election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+3%)
Will Fujimori win the 2nd round of the 2026 Peru presidential election by 8–12%? No 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? Yes 97¢ 100¢ $19 $20 +$1 (+3%)
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National Assembly election? No 98¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+2%)
Will Alex Pelbath be the Republican Nominee for SC-01? No 99¢ 98¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Jordan Wood be the Democratic nominee for ME-02? No 99¢ 90¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Robert Charles win the 2026 Maine Governor Republican primary election? Yes 97¢ 95¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-2%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Up 94¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election? No 96¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Down 91¢ 0¢ $14 $0 −$14 (-100%)
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election? Yes 99¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Up 99¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 11? Yes 98¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +2%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 14 $15 +$1 +7%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Will the announcers say "What A Save" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Jun 13 $8 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:30AM-6:45AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET Jun 13 $6 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2AM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 13 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 86% +$58
politics 9% −$24
finance 3% −$18
other 1% +$1
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 1h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 2h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 3h
Solana Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 4h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $14 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $14 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 9h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $15 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 11h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:45AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $14 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $14 12h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $15 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $15 12h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,650 on June 13? BUY No 99¢ $15 13h
XRP Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $15 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $14 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 20h
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $15 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $10 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $10 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $15 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 176 +0.2% -9.4% 97% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 233 +0.4% -9.2% 97% 0% -9.1%
≤90d 233 +0.4% -9.2% 97% 0% -9.1%
all 233 +0.4% -9.2% 97% 0% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover29.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.2% 0% -9.1%
10% ← realistic here -17.9% 0% -17.8%
15% -25.8% 0% -25.7%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $165.17 · official $165.17 (match) · 474 history records