Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T15:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
34 0x34a1…c976 sports 8 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$285 (+11%) realized +$284 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown80%max
Avg bet$321per market
Trades / day1.4pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$507now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$505
14 days+$281
30 days+$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% −$1
crypto 34% +$1
sports 28% +$282
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-3.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +62.7% +47.2% 50% 50% +21.8%
≤30d 7 +7.3% -3.0% 43% 29% +2.8%
≤90d 7 +7.3% -3.0% 43% 29% +2.8%
all 7 +7.3% -3.0% 43% 29% +2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.0% 29% +2.8%
10% -12.2% 29% -7.0%
15% -20.7% 29% -16.0%
20% -28.5% 29% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 65% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$57 · ×2.99 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.24 per $1 lost it wins $2.24
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$507
Realized+$284
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage11d
Avg bet$321
Trades / day1.4
Drawdown80%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 17? No 100¢ 100¢ $506 $507 +$1 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $483 −$1 -0%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 11 $325 +$175 +54%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major S Jun 11 $168 +$332 +197%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $87 −$85 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $140 −$140 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 6? Jun 06 $371 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $507.01 · official $507.01 (match) · 20 history records