Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T05:39:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34a5…9450 sports 190 markets active 1h ago coverage 96d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$58,644 (-17%) realized −$58,538 · open −$106
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate28%53W / 135L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,831per market
Trades / day4.7pace
Fees−$6,207est.
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$894now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,712
7 days+$4,445
14 days+$11,437
30 days−$14,520
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$75,106
other 2% +$1,559
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -5.2% -14.2% 50% 50% +12.8%
≤30d 52 +26.3% +14.3% 29% 29% -30.0%
≤90d 185 -13.4% -21.6% 29% 29% -27.6%
all 188 -14.8% -22.9% 28% 28% -30.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 28% -30.4%
10% -30.3% 27% -37.0%
15% -37.0% 25% -43.1%
20% -43.2% 24% -48.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -23% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$2,091) neutral
Persistence
early -18% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$2,190 vs −$1,404 · ×1.56 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.61 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

96d coverage
Net worth$894
Realized−$58,538
Unrealized−$106
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses53 / 135
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$6,207
Open positions2
Markets (closed)188 / 190
History coverage96d
Avg bet$1,831
Trades / day4.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 188 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Team Liquid 6¢ 6¢ $500 $458 −$42 (-8%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In Deep Cross Gaming 15¢ 13¢ $500 $435 −$65 (-13%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 130 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $4,454 +$2,954 +66%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5,054 +$2,758 +55%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $2,026 −$2,000 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,017 −$1,000 -98%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $511 +$1,213 +238%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $3,315 +$796 +24%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $203 +$160 +79%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $206 −$200 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $205 −$200 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $307 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $608 +$462 +76%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 16 $204 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1,017 +$1,308 +129%
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $1,113 +$690 +62%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $512 +$1,738 +340%
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $306 −$300 -98%
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 13 $615 +$1,233 +200%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $103 −$100 -97%
LoL: Hanwha Life Esports vs T1 (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 12 $2,398 +$2,422 +101%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 07 $2,345 −$2,300 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 06 $307 −$300 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs HANJIN BRION (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 06 $205 −$200 -98%
Counter-Strike: MIBR vs Lynn Vision (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $611 −$600 -98%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Sharks (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 04 $708 +$438 +62%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 03 $307 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs NRG (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $306 −$300 -98%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs TYLOO (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1,086 −$1,067 -98%
Counter-Strike: M80 vs Lynn Vision (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1,017 +$1,285 +126%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 02 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: ThunderTalk Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 02 $3,043 −$2,035 -67%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $1,046 +$5,283 +505%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $511 −$500 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $3,648 −$3,034 -83%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Dplus KIA (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $1,020 −$1,000 -98%
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 30 $103 +$1,895 +1843%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 30 $205 −$200 -98%
LoL: Top Esports vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 28 $615 −$600 -98%
LoL: JD Gaming vs ThunderTalk Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 28 $103 −$100 -98%
LoL: KT Rolster vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $2,000 −$1,195 -60%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Nongshim Red Force (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $204 −$200 -98%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $7,687 −$1,720 -22%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $9,061 −$8,900 -98%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea May 26 $1,515 −$137 -9%
LoL: Dplus KIA vs T1 (BO5) - Esports World Cup Korea Qualifier Playoff May 25 $307 −$300 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - Esports World C May 25 $512 −$500 -98%
LoL: Weibo Gaming vs LGD Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $2,345 −$1,000 -43%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Legacy (BO5) - CS Asia Championships P May 24 $816 −$500 -61%
LoL: HANJIN BRION vs T1 (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $461 −$450 -98%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 24 $103 −$100 -97%
LoL: Ninjas in Pyjamas vs EDward Gaming (BO5) - LPL Play-In May 24 $2,341 −$2,300 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational BUY Deep Cross Gaming 15¢ $513 1h
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In BUY Team Liquid 6¢ $514 1h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof SELL Team Falcons 100¢ $7,408 11h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $1,518 20h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 59¢ $2,936 26h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Spirit 56¢ $2,026 2d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo BUY Aurora Gaming 42¢ $1,017 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 99¢ $3,841 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 55¢ $203 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL G2 24¢ $271 2d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 77¢ $3,009 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $2,022 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $3,032 3d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 4¢ $206 3d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $205 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $307 3d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo SELL Aurora Gaming 100¢ $1,070 3d
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla BUY Team Falcons 29¢ $511 5d
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY G2 26¢ $307 5d
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 28¢ $204 5d
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Aurora Gaming 56¢ $608 5d
Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 61¢ $1,113 7d
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Team Falcons 43¢ $1,017 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI SELL T1 99¢ $2,249 7d
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI BUY T1 22¢ $512 7d
LoL: Top Esports vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Top Esports 33¢ $306 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 27¢ $102 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs SELL Team WE 46¢ $1,804 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 14¢ $410 8d
LoL: Team WE vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs BUY Team WE 9¢ $103 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $893.79 · official $893.79 (match) · 468 history records