Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T20:28:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34a6…e544 other 288 markets active 1h ago coverage 121d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,354 (-1%) realized −$1,379 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate63%180W / 107L
Whale WR53%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$481per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$122est.
Kalshi-fit23%portable
Net worth$140now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$168
7 days−$312
14 days+$139
30 days−$922
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$2,312
sports 26% +$219
crypto 0% −$108
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 -5.7% -14.7% 71% 25% -11.2%
≤30d 91 -2.3% -11.6% 67% 13% -10.9%
≤90d 212 -0.9% -10.4% 61% 11% -11.1%
all 287 -1.0% -10.4% 63% 14% -11.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 14% -11.0%
10% -19.0% 4% -19.5%
15% -26.8% 1% -27.3%
20% -34.0% 1% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
76% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 53% (≥$702) neutral
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$66 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

121d coverage
Net worth$140
Realized−$1,379
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)63%
Wins / losses180 / 107
Whale WR (big bets)53%
Est. fees paid−$122
Open positions1
Markets (closed)287 / 288
History coverage121d
Avg bet$481
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit23%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 287 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Over 73¢ 90¢ $115 $140 +$25 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $999 −$962 -96%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,001 +$72 +7%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 Jun 16 $1,001 +$20 +2%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $904 +$132 +15%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $802 +$64 +8%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $702 +$62 +9%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $604 +$165 +27%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $451 +$170 +38%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $341 +$110 +32%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $302 +$12 +4%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $1,000 −$671 -67%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $1,000 +$157 +16%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs M80 - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $26 −$7 -26%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs B8 - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $111 −$19 -17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 14 $305 −$109 -36%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 27 to April 29, 2026? Jun 14 $804 −$95 -12%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $1,000 +$61 +6%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $1,002 +$83 +8%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1,000 +$61 +6%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $1,000 +$65 +6%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $1,000 +$96 +10%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $1,000 +$95 +10%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 10 $903 +$128 +14%
Portugal vs. Nigeria: O/U 0.5 Jun 10 $801 +$25 +3%
Belarus vs. Burkina Faso: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $802 +$58 +7%
Peru vs. Spain: O/U 0.5 Jun 09 $801 +$24 +3%
France vs. Northern Ireland: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $701 +$19 +3%
Netherlands vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $701 +$22 +3%
Croatia vs. Slovenia: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $701 +$38 +5%
Kosovo vs. Andorra: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $701 +$19 +3%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $601 +$37 +6%
Liechtenstein vs. Cyprus: O/U 0.5 Jun 07 $601 +$24 +4%
England vs. New Zealand: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $147 −$40 -27%
Romania vs. Wales: O/U 0.5 Jun 06 $602 +$52 +9%
Belgium vs. Tunisia: O/U 1.5 Jun 06 $474 +$47 +10%
Myanmar vs. Guam: O/U 2.5 Jun 06 $501 +$19 +4%
Hungary vs. Finland: O/U 1.5 Jun 05 $502 +$72 +14%
Thailand vs. Kuwait: O/U 5.5 Jun 05 $400 +$9 +2%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $401 +$4 +1%
Sweden vs. Greece: O/U 5.5 Jun 04 $400 −$1 -0%
Slovenia vs. Cyprus: O/U 4.5 Jun 04 $400 +$8 +2%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 04 $400 +$8 +2%
Netherlands vs. Algeria: O/U 4.5 Jun 03 $801 +$7 +1%
Luxembourg vs. Italy: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $400 +$3 +1%
DR Congo vs. Denmark: O/U 3.5 Jun 03 $401 +$11 +3%
Gibraltar vs. British Virgin Islands: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $501 −$124 -25%
Philippines vs. Guam: O/U 5.5 Jun 03 $704 −$214 -30%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 2.5 Jun 02 $700 +$7 +1%
Wales vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 02 $701 −$8 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $81 56m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $35 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 3¢ $37 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 78¢ $999 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,073 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 93¢ $1,001 3h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,020 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 98¢ $1,001 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,036 20h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 86¢ $904 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $866 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $802 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $763 21h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 92¢ $702 22h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 78¢ $604 25h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $621 44h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 72¢ $451 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $451 47h
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $341 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 81¢ $314 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 77¢ $302 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 31¢ $329 2d
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1,000 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,157 2d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 86¢ $1,000 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $0 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,086 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 92¢ $1,002 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1,061 3d
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 94¢ $1,000 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $140.26 · official $140.26 (match) · 1052 history records