Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T04:12:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
34 0x34a7…b27c sports 87 markets active 2h ago coverage 205d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$212 (+12%) realized +$239 · open −$27
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -2% what you keep after slip
Net edge-2%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate26%22W / 64L
Drawdown90%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$90
7 days+$118
14 days−$164
30 days−$98
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 46% +$406
other 44% −$177
crypto 9% −$68
culture 1% −$10
weather 0% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-2.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -20.5% -28.1% 18% 18% +9.6%
≤30d 75 -22.0% -29.4% 16% 16% -15.9%
≤90d 83 +5.9% -4.1% 24% 24% +3.2%
all 86 +8.0% -2.3% 26% 26% +0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.3% 26% +0.7%
10% -11.6% 24% -9.0%
15% -20.2% 24% -17.8%
20% -28.0% 21% -25.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +75% → late -59% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$14 · ×3.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.21 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

205d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$239
Unrealized−$27
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses22 / 64
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage205d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown90%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 30¢ $50 $23 −$27 (-55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $303 +$120 +40%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -98%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 +$42 +414%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $10 +$48 +468%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$1 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -94%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -98%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $31 +$104 +338%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 6? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 6? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Knicks Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Mavericks vs. Bulls Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Cavaliers Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Spurs vs. Thunder Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Warriors Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Mavericks vs. Raptors Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Qatar 0 - 1 Switzerland? Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Bulls vs. Rockets Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 15 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$11 -100%
Celtics vs. 76ers Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Thunder vs. Suns Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Oscar Piastri get pole position at the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Pr Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 96¢ $423 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $303 14h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 36h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 36h
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 0 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 36h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 3d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 4d
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 4d
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 4d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $58 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 5d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 5d
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 2 Norway? BUY Yes 16¢ $10 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $5 6d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 4¢ $5 6d
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $20 6d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 6d
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 6d
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 6d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 7d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 7d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.69 · official $22.69 (match) · 172 history records