Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T02:06:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x34a9…4cfd
weather · 679 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
+$290 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$128 · open +$132
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,145
Realized+$128
Unrealized+$132
Win rate (resolved)75%
Wins / losses467 / 157
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions73
Markets (closed)624 / 679
History coverage11d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day264.0
Drawdown75%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 73 History 624 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$300
7 days+$61
14 days+$128
30 days+$128
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? No 80¢ 98¢ $183 $225 +$41 (+23%)
Will Spencer Pratt win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? No 90¢ 99¢ $200 $219 +$19 (+10%)
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? Yes 95¢ 96¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? No 95¢ 98¢ $98 $101 +$3 (+3%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? No 87¢ 99¢ $77 $88 +$11 (+14%)
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by June 30? No 78¢ 87¢ $72 $81 +$8 (+11%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? No 72¢ 90¢ $60 $76 +$16 (+26%)
Will Russia enter Kharkiv by December 31, 2026? No 88¢ 94¢ $69 $74 +$5 (+7%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 88¢ 73¢ $79 $66 −$13 (-17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 66¢ 52¢ $74 $58 −$16 (-21%)
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 19°C on June 13? No 96¢ 100¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+4%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 84¢ 98¢ $43 $51 +$7 (+17%)
GPT-5.6 released by June 15, 2026? No 87¢ 98¢ $44 $49 +$5 (+12%)
Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 30¢ 39¢ $35 $45 +$10 (+29%)
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 31°C on June 13? No 95¢ 100¢ $42 $44 +$2 (+5%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? Yes 89¢ 74¢ $53 $44 −$9 (-17%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Yes 34¢ 62¢ $20 $37 +$16 (+79%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Yes 64¢ 74¢ $30 $34 +$5 (+16%)
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 43m and 47m? Yes 42¢ 80¢ $17 $33 +$16 (+91%)
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? No 91¢ 97¢ $30 $32 +$2 (+6%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 92¢ 99¢ $29 $31 +$2 (+8%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Trump out as President by June 30? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $11 −$6 -56%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 14 $29 −$10 -35%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $50 +$3 +6%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $76 −$76 -100%
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +41%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $75 −$46 -62%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $75 −$71 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $2 +$3 +144%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $75 +$3 +4%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $75 −$75 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $66 +$9 +13%
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $100 +$12 +12%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $39 −$20 -52%
Will Spain reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $7 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 14°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$3 +5%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 13 $54 +$5 +8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $34 −$27 -78%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 92-93°F on Ju Jun 13 $50 +$2 +3%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 13 $30 +$33 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on June 13? Jun 13 $9 $0 +1%
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $50 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 12? Jun 13 $50 +$2 +3%
Will Brian Bjelde be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX' Jun 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will X Æ A-Xii be on-stage at a bell ceremony commemorating SpaceX's I Jun 13 $3 +$2 +69%
Will Strong Armenia win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 12 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $22 +$11 +52%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $8 $0 +1%
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -96%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 12 $14 +$1 +7%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.4T? Jun 12 $35 +$1 +3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.6T? Jun 12 $19 +$2 +11%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $5 +$3 +59%
Will SpaceX’s closing share price on its first day of trading be less Jun 12 $16 +$1 +6%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $50 +$2 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $8 $0 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Solana Up or Down - June 12, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 12 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 53% +$391
sports 15% −$245
other 14% +$61
world 9% −$22
politics 4% +$45
culture 2% +$70
tech 1% +$9
finance 1% +$5
crypto 1% −$59
economics 0% +$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 99¢ $103 34m
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 96¢ $100 35m
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 18¢ $5 40m
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 39m and 43 BUY No 82¢ $10 52m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 39¢ $1 1h
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 39¢ $10 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 23¢ $2 2h
Will 8+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY No 70¢ $26 3h
Will 9+ matches be decided by penalty shootout during the 2026 FIFA Wo BUY Yes 19¢ $3 3h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? SELL No 76¢ $5 5h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 15? BUY No 54¢ $3 5h
Will "Disclosure Day" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 47m? SELL No 99¢ $7 6h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 32¢ $2 7h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 30¢ $2 7h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage BUY BetBoom Team 39¢ $76 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 37¢ $40 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 60¢ $76 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 38¢ $3 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 42¢ $45 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 61¢ $4 9h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 5¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 4¢ $0 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 5¢ $0 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 4¢ $0 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 4¢ $0 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 4¢ $0 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 4¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 4¢ $1 9h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 2 Winner SELL Vitality 4¢ $0 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-15.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 471 -12.5% -20.9% 71% 22% -8.9%
≤30d 624 -6.7% -15.6% 75% 25% -8.4%
≤90d 624 -6.7% -15.6% 75% 25% -8.4%
all 624 -6.7% -15.6% 75% 25% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover264.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.6% 25% -8.4%
10% ← realistic here -23.7% 8% -17.2%
15% -31.1% 7% -25.2%
20% -37.8% 5% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,145.38 · official $2,145.30 (match) · 3500 history records