Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T11:39:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x34ab…3eb5
world · 183 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$9,987 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$11,617 · open −$3,620
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY world specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$17,913
Realized+$11,617
Unrealized−$3,620
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses88 / 80
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions38
Markets (closed)168 / 183
Avg bet$1,062
Trades / day159.3
Drawdown33%
Kalshi-fit90%
Chart Positions 38 History 168 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,171
7 days+$1,534
14 days+$1,489
30 days+$11,617
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? No 44¢ 30¢ $2,672 $1,801 −$870 (-33%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 17¢ 18¢ $1,390 $1,400 +$10 (+1%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? No 33¢ 26¢ $1,654 $1,344 −$310 (-19%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? No 66¢ 64¢ $1,320 $1,290 −$30 (-2%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 62¢ 60¢ $1,240 $1,210 −$30 (-2%)
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Yes 20¢ 10¢ $2,113 $1,029 −$1,083 (-51%)
Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? Yes 15¢ 30¢ $478 $980 +$501 (+105%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026? No 38¢ 34¢ $1,119 $973 −$145 (-13%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 63¢ 55¢ $976 $842 −$134 (-14%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by July 31? No 58¢ 39¢ $1,230 $833 −$397 (-32%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? No 51¢ 42¢ $1,020 $830 −$190 (-19%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $1,046 $651 −$395 (-38%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? No 67¢ 56¢ $670 $555 −$115 (-17%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $476 $430 −$46 (-10%)
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30? No 59¢ 58¢ $386 $380 −$6 (-2%)
Trump meets with Mojtaba Khamenei by December 31? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $349 $378 +$29 (+8%)
Will Israel strike 4 countries in 2026? No 64¢ 58¢ $418 $375 −$43 (-10%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 7¢ $222 $354 +$132 (+59%)
Will Iran close its airspace by July 15? Yes 33¢ 22¢ $525 $343 −$183 (-35%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 45¢ 48¢ $239 $252 +$14 (+6%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $240 $250 +$10 (+4%)
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Yes 12¢ 13¢ $203 $218 +$15 (+7%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 46¢ 44¢ $230 $218 −$12 (-5%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by July 31, 2026? No 25¢ 17¢ $250 $170 −$80 (-32%)
Israeli parliament dissolved by July 31? No 30¢ 32¢ $157 $168 +$10 (+7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $249 −$218 -88%
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 12 $401 −$319 -79%
Will Marco Rubio attend Trump’s Xi summit? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? Jun 12 $146 −$145 -99%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 31? Jun 12 $55 −$55 -100%
US federally charges ex-Cuba leader Raul Castro? Jun 12 $2,185 −$2,014 -92%
Will there be at least 2000 measles cases in the U.S. by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $32 +$88 +276%
Will Sam Altman testify against Musk? Jun 12 $35 −$30 -87%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? Jun 12 $13 −$3 -23%
Trump endorses China's claim to Taiwan this week? Jun 12 $18 −$18 -100%
Kevin Warsh confirmed as Fed Chair by May 15? Jun 12 $166 −$166 -100%
Trump declassifies new UFO files by May 15? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Putin visit China by May 31? Jun 12 $111 −$101 -91%
Wes Streeting out as UK Health Secretary by May 15?? Jun 12 $91 −$91 -100%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $120 −$120 -100%
Will Gemini 3.2 be released on May 19? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 16? Jun 12 $62 −$472 -761%
UK Cabinet Minister resigns by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? Jun 12 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Navi win IEM Atlanta 2026? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $460 −$772 -168%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $15 −$15 -100%
Will Israel announce the ceasefire has been extended by May 15? Jun 12 $1,013 −$1,093 -108%
Will Iran close its airspace by July 31? Jun 11 $131 +$19 +14%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 11 $1,325 +$227 +17%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $432 +$120 +28%
Will Iran Play in the World Cup? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +92%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $834 +$837 +100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $23 −$4 -17%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $415 −$9 -2%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $2,069 +$714 +34%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 11 $9,165 +$1,327 +14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $744 +$152 +20%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 11 $454 +$17 +4%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 11 $30 +$1 +4%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 11 $3,505 +$423 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 11 $962 +$67 +7%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 11 $4,636 +$370 +8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $2,299 +$64 +3%
Iran x Oman Strait of Hormuz agreement by June 15? Jun 11 $59 +$7 +12%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $4,650 +$624 +13%
World Cup Goals H2H: Messi vs. Ronaldo Jun 10 $485 −$1 -0%
Will Iran close its airspace by December 31? Jun 10 $1,530 +$34 +2%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $773 +$1,715 +222%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 10 $288 +$48 +16%
Will Iran close its airspace by August 31? Jun 10 $470 +$4 +1%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $117 +$34 +29%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 10? Jun 10 $1,576 −$13 -1%
US x Cuba economic deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $167 −$30 -18%
Israel x Hezbollah diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 95% +$5,955
politics 2% +$1,760
other 1% +$4,758
crypto 1% +$190
finance 1% +$1,010
sports 0% $0
tech 0% −$56
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 58¢ $45 5m
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 39m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 58¢ $9 45m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 44¢ $44 45m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 45¢ $90 47m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 46¢ $46 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $3 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 58¢ $0 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 58¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 58¢ $3 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 59¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 59¢ $14 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $84 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $29 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $8 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $16 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $24 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $0 1h
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $47 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 47¢ $47 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $21 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $51 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $1 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $7 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $12 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $2 1h
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? BUY No 49¢ $2 1h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $9 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $5 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)+21.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 88 +6.1% -4.0% 50% 30% -6.4%
≤30d 168 +34.1% +21.3% 52% 31% -2.2%
≤90d 168 +34.1% +21.3% 52% 31% -2.2%
all 168 +34.1% +21.3% 52% 31% -2.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover159.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +21.3% 31% -2.2%
10% +9.7% 21% -11.6%
15% ← realistic here -0.9% 17% -20.1%
20% -10.6% 14% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $17,913.24 · official $17,915.24 (match) · 3500 history records