Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:49:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34ae…7f55 sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$94 (-35%) realized −$94 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -49% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -57% what you keep after slip
Net edge-57%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day13.3pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit60%portable
Net worth$22now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 66% −$91
other 34% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-53.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -48.9% -53.8% 0% 0% -48.7%
≤30d 9 -48.9% -53.8% 0% 0% -48.7%
≤90d 9 -48.9% -53.8% 0% 0% -48.7%
all 9 -48.9% -53.8% 0% 0% -48.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -53.8% 0% -48.7%
10% -58.2% 0% -53.6%
15% -62.3% 0% -58.1%
20% -66.0% 0% -62.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -43% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -49% · $-wt -43% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
— vs −$12 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$22
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 9
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)9 / 10
History coverage2d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day13.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit60%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $23 $22 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $71 −$8 -12%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 18 $37 −$4 -10%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 18 $55 −$54 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? Jun 18 $16 −$16 -97%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $1 $0 -8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $3 $0 -8%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $41 −$1 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $23 14m
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 58¢ $62 1h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 64¢ $71 1h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $2 29h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $7 29h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $3 29h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 17¢ $10 40h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 17¢ $33 46h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $55 2d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $37 2d
Will Brazil vs. Haiti end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 27¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 51¢ $3 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 20¢ $39 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $0 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $8 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 2d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 2d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $22.05 · official $22.05 (match) · 29 history records