Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:48:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
34 0x34af…2bca sports 15 markets active 2d ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$223 (-32%) realized −$223 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate40%6W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$40
7 days−$215
14 days−$215
30 days−$215
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% −$158
other 38% −$75
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-7.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +5.8% -4.2% 38% 38% -40.2%
≤30d 13 +5.8% -4.2% 38% 38% -40.2%
≤90d 15 +2.8% -7.0% 40% 40% -40.4%
all 15 +2.8% -7.0% 40% 40% -40.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.0% 40% -40.4%
10% -15.9% 40% -46.1%
15% -24.0% 40% -51.3%
20% -31.4% 40% -56.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 42% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -34% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$39 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.34 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$223
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses6 / 9
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions0
Markets (closed)15 / 15
History coverage54d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 15 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $7 −$1 -8%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$23 -77%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $46 −$17 -36%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $27 +$18 +70%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $69 −$20 -29%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $20 +$24 +124%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $76 −$53 -70%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$26 +52%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$20 +67%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $10 +$20 +188%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) Jun 14 $115 −$114 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $95 −$94 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $61 −$3 -4%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $31 −$31 -99%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $19 +$13 +67%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? SELL Yes 23¢ $6 39h
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $7 39h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $7 40h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 77¢ $30 40h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $29 40h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 27¢ $46 45h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $27 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 16¢ $28 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 25¢ $45 2d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $21 2d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $23 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal 17¢ $23 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 55¢ $76 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $50 3d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 59¢ $30 3d
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 34¢ $10 3d
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Spurs 50¢ $115 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $95 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $59 6d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $61 6d
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves BUY Nuggets 54¢ $31 55d
Knicks vs. Hawks SELL Knicks 100¢ $32 55d
Knicks vs. Hawks BUY Knicks 59¢ $19 55d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 29 history records