Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T06:40:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34b1…bc54 world 114 markets active 11d ago coverage 458d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$36,047 (+8%) realized +$32,676 · open +$3,371
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR38%break-even
Win rate60%67W / 45L
Whale WR71%big bets
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$3,958per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$16,102now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$291
30 days−$2,691
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 36% +$18,784
crypto 28% −$2,094
tech 15% +$17,811
other 15% +$4,590
politics 5% −$904
sports 1% −$2,477
weather 0% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +38%
net ROI/market (all)-11.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 6 -20.1% -27.7% 67% 17% -24.2%
≤90d 13 -14.9% -23.0% 62% 15% -13.5%
all 112 -2.3% -11.6% 60% 38% -2.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~12%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.6% 38% -2.7%
10% ← realistic here -20.0% 29% -12.0%
15% -27.8% 19% -20.5%
20% -34.8% 12% -28.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 71% (≥$4,675) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
6.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,038 vs −$829 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.87 per $1 lost it wins $1.87
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

458d coverage
Net worth$16,102
Realized+$32,676
Unrealized+$3,371
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses67 / 45
Whale WR (big bets)71%
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions2
Markets (closed)112 / 114
History coverage458d
Avg bet$3,958
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 112 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 63¢ 80¢ $12,300 $15,577 +$3,276 (+27%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 53¢ 64¢ $431 $525 +$94 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 17 $300 −$136 -45%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $2,061 +$426 +21%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $1,013 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 10 $5,814 +$199 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $4,200 +$33 +1%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 02 $3,214 −$3,214 -100%
Will Kanye West visit Israel by June 30? May 07 $3,286 +$468 +14%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell by end of 2026? Apr 24 $3,500 −$43 -1%
Kash Patel out by April 30? Apr 21 $316 +$8 +3%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 19 $975 +$30 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 7, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Apr 19 $40 −$40 -100%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? Apr 13 $2,040 −$9 -0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? Apr 01 $8,622 +$714 +8%
Trump announces end of military operations against Iran by March 31st? Mar 24 $2,949 −$402 -14%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 22 $8,398 +$618 +7%
TJR mentee Timmeh earns prop payout in 30 days? Mar 13 $28 +$63 +227%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31? Mar 13 $3,500 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $3,200 −$2,884 -90%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in February? Feb 06 $1,278 −$1,278 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in February? Feb 06 $3,810 −$3,810 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in February? Feb 06 $24,050 −$4,724 -20%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in February? Feb 06 $1,503 −$24 -2%
US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? Feb 02 $708 −$6 -1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 02 $14,532 +$7,069 +49%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by March 31? Feb 01 $4,501 +$491 +11%
Will the US conduct a cyberattack on Iran by Jan 31? Feb 01 $3,692 +$473 +13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2026? Jan 22 $1,020 +$60 +6%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jan 21 $3,210 +$84 +3%
Nikita Bier out as Head of Product at X by March 31? Jan 18 $0 $0 +13%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by January 31? Jan 15 $37,705 −$67 -0%
US strikes Iran by January 14, 2026? Jan 14 $1,496 +$46 +3%
Will the Iranian regime fall by January 31? Jan 14 $4,800 −$134 -3%
Will Gold close above $4000 at the end of 2025? Jan 12 $615 −$615 -100%
US strikes Iran by January 12, 2026? Jan 12 $2,090 +$10 +0%
US strikes Iran by January 13, 2026? Jan 12 $98 $0 -0%
Over $15M committed to the Trove public sale? Jan 11 $1,420 −$162 -11%
Maduro out by January 31, 2026? Jan 08 $3,000 −$3,000 -100%
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? Jan 07 $3,120 −$38 -1%
Maduro out in 2025? Jan 01 $16,484 +$3,916 +24%
Will Bitcoin hit $80k or $150k first? Dec 29 $248 +$141 +57%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 65-66°F on November Dec 09 $80 −$80 -100%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase November 11-17? Dec 09 $205 −$180 -88%
Will Hezbollah disarm in 2025? Nov 27 $2,434 +$56 +2%
Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025? Nov 27 $1,132 +$67 +6%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31? Nov 25 $245 +$16 +7%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 31? Nov 25 $465 +$15 +3%
Will Gemini 3.0 be released on November 18 2025? Nov 24 $2,560 −$1,639 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - November 24, 1PM ET Nov 24 $86 +$44 +51%
Cardano ETF in 2025? Nov 20 $4,756 +$1,150 +24%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 20? Nov 18 $368 −$9 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $164 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $2,487 11d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 17¢ $150 12d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 15¢ $150 12d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $8 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL No 67¢ $1,005 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 66¢ $8 13d
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 67¢ $1,005 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $1,000 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1,017 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $16 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $1 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $2 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 82¢ $24 14d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 83¢ $1,322 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $1,290 18d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $381 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $1,620 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $55 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $81 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $354 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $28 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $5 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $16 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $71 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $1 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $41 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $4 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $1,318 19d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $1,185 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16,101.98 · official $16,101.98 (match) · 1669 history records