Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T12:42:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34b5…7faa crypto 294 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$609 (-6%) realized −$609 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -39% what you keep after slip
Net edge-39%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate52%153W / 141L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$36per market
Trades / day48.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$291
7 days−$291
14 days−$295
30 days−$861
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$859
world 0% −$1
sports 0% $0
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -29.6% -36.3% 48% 25% -31.7%
≤30d 294 -21.3% -28.8% 52% 32% -17.0%
≤90d 294 -21.3% -28.8% 52% 32% -17.0%
all 294 -21.3% -28.8% 52% 32% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover48.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -28.8% 32% -17.0%
10% ← realistic here -35.6% 20% -25.0%
15% -41.8% 13% -32.2%
20% -47.5% 7% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 26% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
37% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -24% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$13 · ×0.49 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$609
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses153 / 141
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)294 / 294
History coverage22d
Avg bet$36
Trades / day48.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 294 Trades
no open positions (58 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$6 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 28 $56 −$26 -46%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 28 $12 +$3 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 28 $30 −$29 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 28 $11 −$11 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$12 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $40 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 28 $36 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:15AM-7:30AM ET Jun 28 $56 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$2 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 28 $51 +$4 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 28 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:40AM-6:45AM ET Jun 28 $25 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 28 $26 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 28 $24 −$10 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 28 $12 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 28 $6 $0 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $13 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $6 $0 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 28 $9 +$6 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 28 $14 +$6 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $6 −$1 -16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$1 -15%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 28 $8 −$3 -37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 28 $7 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET Jun 28 $24 −$9 -38%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $12 $0 +3%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 28 $16 −$2 -10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$1 -26%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 28 $12 +$1 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:05AM-5:10AM ET Jun 28 $5 −$2 -30%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET Jun 28 $19 −$4 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 28 $8 +$1 +11%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 28 $15 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Jun 28 $13 +$5 +37%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 28 $7 −$7 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 28 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $202 −$98 -48%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 9, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 28 $61 −$40 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 28 $42 −$42 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$15 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $1 28m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 31m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $1 32m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $1 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 33m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 93¢ $25 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET SELL Up 85¢ $29 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $1 35m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 80¢ $25 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 36m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 92¢ $27 38m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $25 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $26 40m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 28, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 40m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET SELL Down 69¢ $15 45m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $1 46m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 48m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $1 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $26 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 64¢ $5 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET SELL Down 81¢ $52 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 76¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $25 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1218 history records