Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T20:26:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
34 0x34b7…1342 crypto 62 markets active 15h ago coverage 137d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$352 (+5%) realized +$355 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate95%58W / 3L
Drawdown1%max
Avg bet$107per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$3
30 days+$39
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 61% −$3
other 22% +$310
crypto 17% +$44
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-6.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 48 +2.3% -7.4% 96% 2% -8.7%
≤90d 58 +2.0% -7.7% 97% 2% -8.8%
all 61 +3.5% -6.3% 95% 3% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.3% 3% -4.7%
10% -15.3% 3% -13.8%
15% -23.5% 3% -22.2%
20% -31.0% 3% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 88% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$2 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×88.19 per $1 lost it wins $88.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

137d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$355
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)95%
Wins / losses58 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)61 / 62
History coverage137d
Avg bet$107
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown1%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 61 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-58%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 22? Jun 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 22? Jun 22 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 18? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 18? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 17? Jun 17 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? Jun 17 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 15? Jun 15 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14? Jun 15 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? Jun 13 $30 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $1,136 −$1 -0%
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 13 $2,503 −$3 -0%
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? Jun 12 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 11? Jun 11 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? Jun 10 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? Jun 09 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 8? Jun 08 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? Jun 08 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $90 on June 4? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 4? Jun 04 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 3? Jun 04 $11 $0 +1%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on June 3? Jun 03 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 2? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on June 2? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $60 and $70 on June 1? Jun 02 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 1? Jun 02 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 30? Jun 01 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 on May 30? Jun 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $1.55 on May 29? May 30 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 30 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 28? May 29 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on May 28? May 29 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on May 27? May 28 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on May 27? May 28 $30 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,400 on May 26? May 27 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 26? May 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on May 25? May 26 $10 $0 +0%
XRP Up or Down - May 25, 4AM ET May 26 $40 +$42 +104%
Will Solana reach $105 on May 23? May 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,700 May 18-24? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 22? May 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.50 on May 22? May 23 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $10 14h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 22? BUY No 100¢ $30 15h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $10 4d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 18? BUY No 100¢ $30 4d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $10 5d
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 17? BUY No 100¢ $30 5d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.40 and $1.50 on June 16? BUY No 100¢ $10 6d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on June 16? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 6d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $10 7d
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on June 15? BUY No 100¢ $30 7d
Will the price of XRP be above $0.90 on June 13? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,135 9d
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,136 9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,100 June 8-14? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $2,500 9d
Will Helder Barbalho win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $2,503 9d
Will the price of Solana be between $50 and $60 on June 12? BUY No 100¢ $10 10d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on June 11? BUY No 100¢ $30 11d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,400 and $1,500 on June 10? BUY No 100¢ $10 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,400 on June 10? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 12d
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1,500 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $58,000 on June 9? BUY No 100¢ $30 13d
Will the price of Solana be between $40 and $50 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $30 14d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $68,000 and $70,000 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $10 17d
Will the price of Solana be above $80 on June 5? BUY No 100¢ $30 17d
Will Solana reach $90 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $10 18d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $30 18d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.08 · official $2.08 (match) · 124 history records