Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T05:09:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
34 0x34b8…eff8 other 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 19d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$19 (+29%) realized −$6 · open +$25
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day0.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit57%portable
Net worth$46now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 63% −$9
other 25% +$22
sports 12% +$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-20.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 7 -11.5% -20.0% 43% 29% -23.9%
≤90d 7 -11.5% -20.0% 43% 29% -23.9%
all 7 -11.5% -20.0% 43% 29% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.0% 29% -23.9%
10% -27.6% 29% -31.1%
15% -34.6% 29% -37.8%
20% -41.0% 29% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -16% too few recent
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.69 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

19d coverage
Net worth$46
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$25
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions5
Markets (closed)7 / 14
History coverage19d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day0.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit57%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Lewis Hamilton be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 2¢ 13¢ $3 $25 +$22 (+742%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+17%)
Will Flamengo win Copa Libertadores? Yes 24¢ 32¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+34%)
Will Charles Leclerc be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Card) Justin Gaethje 21¢ 70¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+236%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $5 +$7 +129%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 $0 -6%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-30? May 30 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 27 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET May 26 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET May 26 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET May 26 $11 −$11 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46.37 · official $49.19 · 30 history records