Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T08:16:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

34 0x34bb…9edf sports 4 markets active 2h ago coverage 3d

RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 3d of captured history — unreliable

Total PnL +$76 (+33%) realized +$74 · open +$2

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +48% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +34% what you keep after slip

Net edge+34%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%3W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$57per market

Trades / day1.4pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit75%portable

Net worth$72now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+33.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	3	+48.0%	+33.9%	100%	100%	+33.0%
≤30d	3	+48.0%	+33.9%	100%	100%	+33.0%
≤90d	3	+48.0%	+33.9%	100%	100%	+33.0%
all	3	+48.0%	+33.9%	100%	100%	+33.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover1.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+33.9%	100%	+33.0%
10%	+21.1%	100%	+20.3%
15%	+9.4%	67%	+8.7%
20%	-1.3%	67%	-2.0%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 50% · top 2 77% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +47% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +48% · $-wt +47% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$25 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage

Net worth$72

Realized+$74

Unrealized+$2

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses3 / 0

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)3 / 4

History coverage3d

Avg bet$57

Trades / day1.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 3 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	Yes	59¢	60¢	$70	$72	+$2 (+3%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	Jun 27	$71	+$37	+52%
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	Jun 26	$53	+$17	+32%
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	Jun 25	$34	+$20	+60%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27?	BUY Yes	59¢	$71	1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5	BUY Over	65¢	$71	22h
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5)	BUY Netherlands	75¢	$53	44h
Spread: Morocco (-1.5)	BUY Morocco	62¢	$34	2d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $71.78 · official $71.78 (match) · 7 history records