Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:43:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34bb…db52 weather 264 markets active 2h ago coverage 49d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$91 (-12%) realized −$86 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%106W / 146L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3per market
Trades / day15.6pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$7now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$1
14 days−$59
30 days−$59
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 100% −$115
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-24.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 30 -16.7% -24.7% 47% 43% -12.0%
≤30d 101 -12.6% -21.0% 43% 37% -21.9%
≤90d 252 -16.9% -24.8% 42% 37% -23.0%
all 252 -16.9% -24.8% 42% 37% -23.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.8% 37% -23.0%
10% -32.0% 31% -30.4%
15% -38.6% 23% -37.1%
20% -44.6% 17% -43.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -15% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late -19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.44 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

49d coverage
Net worth$7
Realized−$86
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses106 / 146
Open positions12
Markets (closed)252 / 264
History coverage49d
Avg bet$3
Trades / day15.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 252 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? No 51¢ 74¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+45%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20? No 54¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 20? No 55¢ 57¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+5%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? No 46¢ 46¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? No 55¢ 54¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? No 55¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-19%)
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? No 55¢ 30¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-45%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? No 55¢ 8¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-86%)
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? No 6¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-87%)
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? No 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-98%)
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18? No 54¢ 1¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? No 41¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 36 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +88%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -50%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +33%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$1 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 +$4 +200%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 13? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 37°C on June 11? Jun 11 $4 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 32°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $1 +$1 +54%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -56%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 11? Jun 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 11? Jun 11 $2 −$1 -52%
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +47%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 31°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +126%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 +$1 +81%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 33°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 23°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 33°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -11%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -19%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 10 $1 $0 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 10 $1 $0 -12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 42°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 41°C on June 10? Jun 10 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? Jun 10 $2 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 18? BUY No 55¢ $1 2h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 20? BUY No 54¢ $1 3h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 20? BUY No 55¢ $1 4h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 18°C on June 20? BUY No 55¢ $1 7h
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on June 18? BUY No 41¢ $1 8h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 18? BUY No 51¢ $1 9h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 36°C on June 19? BUY No 55¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 24°C on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 16h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 18? BUY No 55¢ $1 17h
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 35°C on June 17? BUY No 0¢ $1 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 18? BUY No 10¢ $1 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 19? BUY No 46¢ $1 18h
Will the lowest temperature in London be 17°C on June 18? BUY No 54¢ $1 18h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 18? BUY No 6¢ $1 18h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 16°C on June 14? BUY No 54¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 15? BUY No 51¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 52¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 18°C on June 13? BUY No 53¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 13? BUY No 52¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 34°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 55¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 3¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 12? BUY No 53¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 17°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 55¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 12? BUY No 51¢ $1 6d
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 22°C on June 12? BUY No 55¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $7.26 · official $7.26 (match) · 873 history records