Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T06:08:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

34 0x34c3…13b7 other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 1d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover

Total PnL +$146 (+17%) realized +$150 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +32% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip

Net edge+10%after slip

Net WR86%break-even

Win rate86%6W / 1L

Drawdown46%max

Avg bet$105per market

Trades / day9.1pace

Fees−$2est.

Kalshi-fit25%portable

Net worth$319now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +86%

net ROI/market (all)+19.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+32.1%	+19.5%	86%	86%	+16.0%
≤30d	7	+32.1%	+19.5%	86%	86%	+16.0%
≤90d	7	+32.1%	+19.5%	86%	86%	+16.0%
all	7	+32.1%	+19.5%	86%	86%	+16.0%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover9.1 tr/day

realistic slip~9%

edge survives to10%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+19.5%	86%	+16.0%
10%	+8.1%	71%	+4.9%
15%	-2.3%	57%	-5.3%
20%	-11.9%	43%	-14.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 65% · top 2 81% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +28% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +32% · $-wt +28% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$35 vs −$66 · ×0.53 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×3.17 per $1 lost it wins $3.17

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage

Net worth$319

Realized+$150

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)86%

Wins / losses6 / 1

Est. fees paid−$2

Open positions1

Markets (closed)7 / 8

History coverage1d

Avg bet$105

Trades / day9.1

Drawdown46%

Kalshi-fit25%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 1 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	Yes	66¢	65¢	$322	$319	−$4 (-1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$188	+$138	+73%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score	Jun 25	$66	−$66	-100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$156	+$32	+21%
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland?	Jun 24	$50	+$16	+32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 24	$36	+$14	+38%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$5	+$5	+104%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$10	+$6	+57%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	66¢	$325	1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	57¢	$188	5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	99¢	$188	6h
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score	BUY Yes	43¢	$66	7h
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland?	SELL Yes	100¢	$67	7h
Brazil to score first vs. Scotland?	BUY Yes	75¢	$50	8h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	SELL Yes	100¢	$50	9h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	72¢	$36	13h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	82¢	$156	20h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	49¢	$5	29h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	63¢	$10	30h

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $318.51 · official $318.51 (match) · 15 history records