Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T16:24:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34cb…7588 weather 468 markets active 1h ago coverage 23d ⚠
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 22d only
✗ bot/MM pace (136 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$1,925 (-10%) realized +$98 · open −$2,023
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate24%108W / 334L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day136.1pace
Fees−$19est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$6,657now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$415
14 days−$422
30 days−$399
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 34% −$2,093
world 20% +$61
weather 16% −$114
other 12% −$154
tech 11% −$66
sports 4% −$19
finance 2% −$35
crypto 0% +$3
culture 0% −$6
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (136 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 181 -12.8% -21.1% 19% 4% -14.1%
≤30d 442 -9.9% -18.5% 24% 10% -11.9%
≤90d 442 -9.9% -18.5% 24% 10% -11.9%
all 442 -9.9% -18.5% 24% 10% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover136.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -18.5% 10% -11.9%
10% ← realistic here -26.3% 7% -20.3%
15% -33.4% 5% -28.0%
20% -39.9% 5% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
56% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×1.79 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

23d coverage
Net worth$6,657
Realized+$98
Unrealized−$2,023
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses108 / 334
Est. fees paid−$19
Open positions36
Markets (closed)442 / 468
History coverage23d ⚠
Avg bet$39
Trades / day136.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 36 History 442 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? No 50¢ 80¢ $3,250 $5,190 +$1,940 (+60%)
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 49¢ 20¢ $3,196 $1,310 −$1,886 (-59%)
Will Donald Trump announce Jonathan Berry as the next United States Labor Secretary No 90¢ 87¢ $49 $48 −$1 (-3%)
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? No 81¢ 80¢ $41 $40 −$1 (-2%)
Will the Ornn B200 Index be between $4.00 and $5.00 on June 30, 2026? Yes 12¢ 45¢ $4 $13 +$10 (+274%)
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 9¢ 13¢ $8 $12 +$4 (+47%)
Will Denis Bećirović be the Bosniak Presidency Member of Bosnia and Herzegovina following the 2026 general election? Yes 20¢ 50¢ $3 $8 +$5 (+155%)
Will Lisa Nandy be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? Yes 13¢ 15¢ $6 $8 +$1 (+19%)
Will John Healey be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? Yes 10¢ 9¢ $5 $4 −$0 (-6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+3%)
Will Jackson Lahmeyer be the Republican nominee for OK-01? Yes 22¢ 1¢ $88 $3 −$85 (-97%)
Will Darren Jones be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? Yes 18¢ 3¢ $16 $3 −$13 (-83%)
Will Cait Conley be the Democratic nominee for NY-17? Yes 87¢ 72¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Runoff by at least 15%? No 7¢ 1¢ $29 $2 −$27 (-92%)
Will Pitbull perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Yes 4¢ 2¢ $3 $2 −$2 (-53%)
Will there be 60 or more average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on June 30? Yes 4¢ 3¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-17%)
Will Donald Trump announce Sean O'Brien as the next United States Labor Secretary No 92¢ 95¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 25, 2026? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+37%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 29, 2026? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-70%)
Will Steve Hilton finish first in the 2026 California Governor primary election? Yes 3¢ 1¢ $4 $1 −$3 (-82%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-69%)
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 24, 2026? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Will Iván Cepeda win more than 55% of votes in the first round of the 2026 Colombian election? Yes 7¢ 1¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-82%)
Will Graham Platner win between 75% and 80% of votes in the Maine Senate Democratic Primary? Yes 15¢ 1¢ $6 $0 −$5 (-94%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$1 (-81%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? Jun 23 $11 −$1 -6%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June Jun 23 $10 $0 -5%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? Jun 23 $26 −$4 -17%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? Jun 23 $45 −$4 -10%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? Jun 23 $7 −$1 -20%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 23? Jun 23 $20 −$11 -55%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $80 on June 23? Jun 23 $0 $0 -4%
Will the announcers say "History" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FI Jun 23 $34 −$2 -7%
Will Bruno Mars perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show Jun 23 $44 $0 -0%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $23 $0 +2%
Will the announcers say "History" during the England vs Ghana FIFA Wor Jun 23 $19 −$1 -4%
Will Ben McAdams be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 23 $8 −$2 -28%
Will Alex Bores be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $16 −$1 -9%
Will Micah Lasher be the democratic nominee for NY-12? Jun 23 $16 −$2 -12%
Will Dan Cox win the 2026 Maryland Governor Republican primary electio Jun 23 $44 −$1 -2%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 23 $35 −$1 -3%
Will Adriano Espaillat be the Democratic Nominee for NY-13? Jun 23 $70 −$2 -3%
Will the announcers say "Powerade" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan F Jun 23 $18 $0 -0%
Will the announcers say "Handball" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan F Jun 23 $0 $0 -2%
Will the announcers say "Qatar" during the England vs Ghana FIFA World Jun 23 $20 $0 +2%
Will the announcers say "Captain" during the Portugal vs Uzbekistan FI Jun 23 $4 $0 -3%
Will N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Jun 22 $20 −$3 -13%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 22? Jun 22 $251 +$15 +6%
Will Nate Blouin be the Democratic nominee for UT-01? Jun 22 $35 −$3 -8%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on June 22? Jun 22 $12 −$2 -12%
Will the lowest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 -10%
Will Eminem perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 22 $48 $0 -0%
Will Ariana Grande perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime s Jun 22 $48 −$1 -1%
Will Cardi B perform at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final halftime show? Jun 22 $2 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C or below on June 22? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 22? Jun 22 $12 −$8 -67%
Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on June 21, 2026? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 22? Jun 22 $24 +$1 +5%
Will Claire Valdez win the NY-07 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Jun 22 $40 +$1 +2%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on June 22? Jun 22 $0 $0 -95%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$7 -65%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $8 $0 -6%
US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 13, 2026? Jun 22 $14 +$1 +7%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 22°C on June 21? Jun 21 $186 −$2 -1%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $70 −$7 -10%
Will Mike Mazzei win the 2026 Oklahoma Governor Republican primary ele Jun 20 $2 $0 -4%
Will JD Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4 −$3 -64%
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be between 76-77°F on June 20? Jun 20 $1 $0 -24%
Will Jared Kushner attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $137 +$23 +17%
Will Steve Witkoff attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $38 +$1 +3%
Will another outcome occur in the NY-07 Democratic Primary? Jun 20 $0 $0 -62%
Will Abbas Araghchi attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $203 +$29 +14%
Will JD Vance attend the US-Iran Signing Ceremony? Jun 20 $52 −$4 -8%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by mor Jun 20 $5 −$1 -12%
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by 5–1 Jun 20 $9 $0 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $40 59m
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL No 83¢ $27 1h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o SELL Yes 16¢ $5 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL No 85¢ $14 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $40 1h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? SELL No 84¢ $20 2h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY No 85¢ $20 2h
Will Darren Jones be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $8 3h
Will Alan Wilson win the South Carolina Republican Governor Primary Ru BUY No 6¢ $13 4h
Will there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait o BUY Yes 8¢ $7 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? SELL No 54¢ $11 4h
Will John Healey be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 4h
Will Lisa Nandy be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 4h
Will the highest temperature in Karachi be 35°C on June 25? BUY No 56¢ $11 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 47¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June SELL No 48¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 70-71°F on June BUY No 49¢ $10 4h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? SELL No 4¢ $0 5h
Will Darren Jones be the next Foreign Secretary of the UK in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $4 5h
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 23? SELL No 4¢ $0 5h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $1 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $14 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $8 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? SELL No 1¢ $1 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? SELL No 1¢ $1 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on June 23? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 2¢ $1 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 3¢ $1 6h
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 19°C on June 23? BUY No 3¢ $1 6h
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $5 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,657.10 · official $6,656.45 (match) · 3500 history records