Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T22:45:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
34 0x34cf…59bf politics 33 markets active 2h ago coverage 275d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate41%13W / 19L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 29% +$3
politics 25% $0
other 24% $0
sports 9% $0
culture 6% $0
economics 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +1.5% -8.2% 25% 0% -8.5%
≤30d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 0% -8.9%
≤90d 9 +0.8% -8.8% 33% 0% -8.9%
all 32 +0.3% -9.3% 41% 0% -9.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.2%
10% -17.9% 0% -17.9%
15% -25.9% 0% -25.8%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 70% · top 2 77% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×12.24 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×31.83 per $1 lost it wins $31.83
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

275d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)41%
Wins / losses13 / 19
Open positions1
Markets (closed)32 / 33
History coverage275d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 32 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? Yes 13¢ 10¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $43 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 19 $84 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $43 +$3 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $42 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $47 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $40 $0 -0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 25 $13 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 25 $42 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $48 $0 +1%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 01 $3 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 01 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump be impeached in 2025? Oct 01 $29 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 29 $28 $0 +0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $28 $0 +0%
Will Volodymyr Zelensky win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 26 $28 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 25 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 24 $30 $0 +0%
Will J.B. Pritzker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 23 $5 $0 -0%
Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 23 $27 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 23 $2 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 23 $31 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 22 $29 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Bitcoin" or "Crypto" at Charlie Kirk Memorial Event on Sep 21 $30 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 19 $29 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $1 $0 +0%
Will Conor McGregor win the Irish Presidential Election? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $1 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $21 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $10 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $32 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $2 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 19¢ $10 10h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 10h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $5 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $37 16h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $10 17h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $32 17h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $7 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 72¢ $38 36h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $43 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $5 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $37 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $42 2d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 94¢ $47 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 94¢ $47 23d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $1 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $3 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $37 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $40 24d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $35 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 50¢ $42 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? SELL No 97¢ $14 25d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? BUY No 96¢ $13 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $3 25d
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? SELL Yes 13¢ $1 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.07 · official $0.00 (match) · 134 history records