Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:16:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
34 0x34d1…c321 crypto 57 markets active 2h ago coverage 538d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate80%45W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$130per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 77% −$14
crypto 11% +$4
other 5% $0
politics 4% −$1
tech 2% +$1
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 6 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 56 +0.3% -9.3% 80% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.3% 0% -9.6%
10% -17.9% 0% -18.3%
15% -25.9% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.1% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 47% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

538d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses45 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)56 / 57
History coverage538d
Avg bet$130
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 56 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $95 $95 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $22 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 03 $62 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? May 05 $62 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? Apr 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? Apr 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? Apr 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? Mar 03 $5 $0 +0%
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? Mar 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? Mar 03 $60 $0 +0%
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? Feb 02 $18 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 02 $62 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? Jan 02 $25 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? Jan 02 $51 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? Dec 03 $11 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? Dec 03 $72 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $70 +$2 +2%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? Oct 03 $27 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? Oct 03 $46 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? Sep 02 $8 $0 +0%
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? Sep 02 $64 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? Aug 04 $31 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? Aug 04 $39 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? Jul 02 $38 $0 +1%
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? Jun 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Solana reach $300 in May? Jun 21 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? Jun 21 $11 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in April? May 03 $1 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 03 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin all time high in April? May 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 03 $7 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 03 $7 $0 +1%
Trump severs ties with Ukraine before May? May 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. tariff rate on China be between 200% and 300% on April 3 May 03 $11 $0 +0%
Mike Waltz out of Trump administration before May? May 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? May 03 $16 $0 +0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Apr 21 $199 $0 -0%
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 20 $80 $0 -0%
Will 'Michael' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025? Apr 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will UCR hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the Apr 15 $62 $0 -0%
Solana all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 03 $9 $0 +2%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500.00 by March 31? Apr 03 $26 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Bilbao win La Liga? Mar 17 $5,670 −$13 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2000 by February 28 2025? Mar 04 $12 +$1 +6%
Will Elon Musk's net worth be more than $440b on February 28? Mar 04 $14 $0 +0%
Will Trump post 180-199 times on Truth Feb 21-28? Mar 04 $18 $0 +0%
Will Google have the top AI model on January 31? Feb 20 $9 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by January 31, 2025? Feb 20 $9 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana dip to $40 in June? BUY No 100¢ $95 1h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $22 30d
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $62 30d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 in April? BUY No 100¢ $62 62d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $11 91d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 in March? BUY No 100¢ $16 92d
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in March? BUY No 100¢ $63 92d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in February? BUY No 100¢ $5 120d
Will BNB reach $1,200 in February? BUY No 100¢ $28 121d
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.05 in February? BUY No 100¢ $60 123d
Will Hyperliquid hit $46 in January? BUY No 100¢ $18 149d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $62 150d
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $25 181d
Will Hyperliquid reach $52 in December? BUY No 100¢ $51 183d
Will XRP reach $3.80 in November? BUY No 100¢ $11 211d
Will XRP reach $3.60 in November? BUY No 100¢ $72 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $25 241d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 98¢ $45 243d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on September 30? BUY No 100¢ $27 272d
Will XRP reach $6.00 in September? BUY No 100¢ $46 274d
Will Solana dip to $155 in August? BUY No 100¢ $8 301d
Will OpenAi have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $16 301d
Will Solana dip to $150 in August? BUY No 100¢ $64 303d
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in July? BUY No 100¢ $31 334d
Will Solana dip to $130 in July? BUY No 100¢ $39 334d
Will Ethereum dip to $1800 in June? BUY No 99¢ $38 365d
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before June? BUY No 100¢ $6 394d
Will Solana dip to $120 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 395d
Will Solana reach $300 in May? BUY No 100¢ $8 396d
Will Trump audit Ukraine aid before May? BUY No 100¢ $16 423d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.98 · official $94.98 (match) · 119 history records