Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T19:01:47+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34d3…6048 world 27 markets active 2h ago coverage 476d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$7 (+1%) realized +$11 · open −$4
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate50%13W / 13L
Drawdown31%max
Avg bet$18per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 66% +$3
other 18% −$1
politics 5% $0
economics 5% +$1
sports 3% +$2
weather 3% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-17.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.0% -9.5% 0% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 8 +1.9% -7.8% 38% 12% -7.6%
≤90d 8 +1.9% -7.8% 38% 12% -7.6%
all 26 -8.8% -17.5% 50% 8% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.5% 8% -8.1%
10% -25.4% 0% -16.9%
15% -32.6% 0% -24.9%
20% -39.2% 0% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 53% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
85% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×1.46 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×3.16 per $1 lost it wins $3.16
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

476d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized+$11
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses13 / 13
Open positions1
Markets (closed)26 / 27
History coverage476d
Avg bet$18
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown31%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 26 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? No 93¢ 84¢ $39 $35 −$4 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 23 $17 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 02 $112 +$2 +2%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 31 $38 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $5 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 30 $42 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $35 +$4 +11%
Will Alberta join the US? May 29 $25 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 28 $33 +$1 +3%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $2 $0 -3%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Jun 26 $10 $0 +4%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 02 $2 $0 +2%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 26 $2 $0 +2%
Will Trump pardon CZ in his first 100 days? Apr 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 30 $1 $0 +0%
Bolsonaro arrested before April? Mar 28 $1 −$1 -75%
Ethena USDe depeg before April? Mar 28 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 21-28? Mar 27 $13 +$1 +6%
Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after March 2025 meeting? Mar 21 $13 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be between 49-50°F on March 14? Mar 15 $12 +$1 +6%
Will the Winnipeg Jets win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 14 $5 $0 -1%
Will egg prices be between $5.25 and $5.50 in February? Mar 14 $13 $0 +1%
Will Feyenoord or Inter Milan advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in NYC be 56°F or below on March 11? Mar 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Club Brugge or Aston Villa advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 10 $13 $0 -0%
Syracuse vs. SMU Mar 06 $13 +$2 +14%
Will Trump's joint address to Congress be 50-60 min? Mar 04 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $39 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 40¢ $17 5h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 40¢ $17 14h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $43 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $43 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 77¢ $43 21d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $41 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 74¢ $28 22d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 74¢ $28 22d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $38 23d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $38 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 98¢ $5 23d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 98¢ $5 23d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $42 24d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $42 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 80¢ $4 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 80¢ $25 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 80¢ $10 24d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $35 24d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $2 24d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 25d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $24 25d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $24 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $34 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 69¢ $33 26d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 188d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 98¢ $1 342d
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? SELL No 96¢ $11 362d
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 98¢ $2 394d
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? BUY No 98¢ $2 409d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.07 · official $35.70 (match) · 80 history records