Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T03:53:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34d5…a977 sports 361 markets active 1h ago coverage 240d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$106 (-0%) realized −$113 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate45%163W / 197L
Whale WR25%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$72per market
Trades / day5.5pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$35now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$116
7 days+$210
14 days+$227
30 days+$281
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% −$162
politics 19% −$4
weather 10% +$168
other 9% +$135
world 3% −$282
finance 2% −$27
culture 1% −$21
economics 0% +$14
tech 0% $0
crypto 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-0.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +117.0% +96.4% 83% 61% +1.4%
≤30d 77 +54.2% +39.5% 51% 39% -6.2%
≤90d 173 +23.4% +11.6% 40% 34% -11.3%
all 360 +9.9% -0.5% 45% 36% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.5% 36% -10.2%
10% -10.1% 26% -18.8%
15% -18.8% 20% -26.6%
20% -26.7% 16% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 25% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.4 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$12 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

240d coverage
Net worth$35
Realized−$113
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses163 / 197
Whale WR (big bets)25%
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions1
Markets (closed)360 / 361
History coverage240d
Avg bet$72
Trades / day5.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 360 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? No 77¢ 95¢ $28 $35 +$7 (+24%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 27 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? Jun 19 $6 +$5 +96%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? Jun 19 $110 +$30 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? Jun 18 $121 +$14 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 18? Jun 18 $90 +$23 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 18? Jun 18 $198 +$31 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 18? Jun 18 $1 +$4 +385%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 17? Jun 17 $324 +$9 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 17? Jun 16 $109 +$2 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 17? Jun 16 $17 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 17? Jun 16 $5 −$2 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 16? Jun 16 $36 +$13 +36%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 16? Jun 16 $96 +$12 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 16? Jun 16 $84 +$55 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 15? Jun 15 $39 +$31 +80%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 15? Jun 15 $7 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 14? Jun 14 $92 +$55 +60%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 22°C on June 14? Jun 14 $0 +$6 +1866%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 14? Jun 14 $22 +$6 +27%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 13 $4 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $24 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on June 13? Jun 12 $25 −$1 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $89 +$53 +59%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $234 −$137 -59%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on June 12? Jun 12 $41 −$2 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 11 $170 +$30 +18%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $27 −$1 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 10? Jun 10 $54 +$7 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $14 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 9? Jun 09 $64 +$21 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 9? Jun 08 $11 +$1 +8%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $5,011 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 31°C on June 7? Jun 07 $1 $0 -18%
Roland Garros WTA: Maja Chwalinska vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 06 $22 −$16 -74%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 06 $22 −$22 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Diana Shnaider vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 04 $19 +$31 +158%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $19 −$11 -55%
Roland Garros WTA: Anna Kalinskaya vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 03 $12 +$14 +113%
Roland Garros WTA: Mirra Andreeva vs Sorana Cirstea Jun 02 $101 $0 +0%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Marta Kostyuk Jun 02 $100 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $2 −$1 -88%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 1? May 31 $6 −$6 -95%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Iga Swiatek May 31 $33 +$3 +10%
Roland Garros WTA: Sorana Cirstea vs Xiyu Wang May 31 $1 $0 -68%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $44 +$29 +66%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 32°C on May 31? May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Roland Garros WTA: Coco Gauff vs Anastasia Potapova May 30 $26 +$12 +46%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -84%
Roland Garros WTA: Diane Parry vs Amanda Anisimova May 30 $18 −$9 -51%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on May 30? May 30 $5 −$4 -74%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on May 30? May 30 $1 −$1 -80%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 77¢ $20 32m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 76¢ $4 36m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY No 76¢ $5 36m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 22¢ $3 59m
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 23¢ $15 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 28¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 100¢ $47 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? SELL Yes 27¢ $39 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 98¢ $46 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 19? BUY Yes 11¢ $6 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 34¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 33¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 33¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 86¢ $13 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? SELL No 85¢ $34 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 33¢ $23 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 32¢ $15 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 19? BUY Yes 23¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 69¢ $23 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 69¢ $11 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 75¢ $1 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 75¢ $37 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 28°C on June 19? BUY No 76¢ $38 3h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 18? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 19h
Will Wild Horse Nine get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academ SELL Yes 2¢ $0 19h
Will The Bride! get the most Oscar nominations at the 99th Academy Awa SELL Yes 0¢ $0 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.27 · official $35.27 (match) · 1679 history records