Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T12:17:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
34 0x34da…3435 sports 252 markets active 2h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$6,922 (+31%) realized +$7,187 · open −$265
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%126W / 103L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown10%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day2.8pace
Fees−$37est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$4,338now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$100
7 days−$186
14 days+$1,440
30 days+$1,432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 41% +$1,918
world 18% +$4,236
sports 16% +$582
other 13% −$769
economics 7% +$518
crypto 4% +$342
culture 0% −$44
tech 0% +$18
finance 0% −$19
weather 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -59.5% -63.4% 20% 0% -15.1%
≤30d 21 -10.1% -18.6% 38% 33% +7.2%
≤90d 106 -42.0% -47.5% 25% 25% +27.4%
all 229 +1.8% -7.9% 55% 54% +27.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 54% +27.3%
10% -16.7% 49% +15.1%
15% -24.8% 40% +4.0%
20% -32.1% 30% -6.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +41% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +41% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +43% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$21 · ×3.45 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.22 per $1 lost it wins $4.22
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$4,338
Realized+$7,187
Unrealized−$265
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses126 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$37
Open positions22
Markets (closed)229 / 252
History coverage165d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day2.8
Drawdown10%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 22 History 229 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? No 80¢ 80¢ $1,000 $994 −$6 (-1%)
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 13¢ 11¢ $914 $828 −$86 (-9%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 56¢ 62¢ $336 $369 +$33 (+10%)
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 58¢ 56¢ $300 $292 −$8 (-3%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $359 $269 −$90 (-25%)
Will the US reopen its embassy in Iran in 2026? Yes 14¢ 10¢ $296 $220 −$75 (-26%)
Spread: France (-1.5) Norway 66¢ 66¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 Under 46¢ 46¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $200 $197 −$3 (-1%)
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 Under 59¢ 57¢ $160 $156 −$4 (-3%)
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? Yes 66¢ 66¢ $130 $130 +$0 (+0%)
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $125 $128 +$2 (+2%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 76¢ 81¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) Belgium 44¢ 44¢ $100 $101 +$1 (+1%)
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 46¢ 44¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Will AfD win the most seats in the 2026 Mecklenburg-Vorpommern parliamentary elections? Yes 68¢ 80¢ $14 $16 +$2 (+17%)
Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $11 $11 +$0 (+3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Will China's annual inflation in 2026 be between 0.6% and 1.0%? Yes 42¢ 32¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-22%)
Will Jaunā Vienotība (JV) win the most seats in the 2026 Latvian parliamentary election? Yes 44¢ 14¢ $15 $5 −$10 (-68%)
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Yes 13¢ 6¢ $10 $4 −$6 (-57%)
Will Lebanese Forces win the most seats in the 2026 Lebanese parliamentary election? Yes 64¢ 3¢ $13 $1 −$12 (-96%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 11 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 26 $102 −$100 -98%
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 23 $34 −$33 -98%
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? Jun 22 $289 +$12 +4%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $2,575 −$51 -2%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $195 −$195 -100%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $525 −$419 -80%
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Jun 18 $316 +$553 +175%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $20 −$2 -11%
Will the Democratic Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm el Jun 18 $22 −$5 -22%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $20 −$5 -23%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 18 $540 +$192 +36%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $620 −$620 -100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1,027 +$113 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 17 $310 +$689 +222%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by August 31, 2026? Jun 17 $996 +$1,402 +141%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $76 −$76 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 10 $26 −$25 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Jun 09 $31 +$16 +52%
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $14 +$6 +39%
Will Tom Sell be the Republican Nominee for TX-19? May 27 $5 +$5 +104%
Glory in Giza: Oleksandr Usyk vs. Rico Verhoeven May 22 $120 +$64 +53%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 18 $32 +$28 +88%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Coco Gauff vs Elina Svitolina May 16 $235 +$188 +80%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Pittsburgh Pirates May 16 $163 +$193 +119%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 15, 2026? May 15 $1,129 +$566 +50%
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 14 $20 −$6 -28%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - DreamLeague Group A May 13 $63 −$16 -25%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 10 $102 +$424 +414%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? May 09 $3,990 +$2,050 +51%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 16, 2026? May 04 $104 −$38 -37%
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? May 04 $6 −$3 -52%
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 04 $10 −$8 -79%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $156 +$99 +64%
Will Steve Witkoff have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30? May 01 $401 +$501 +125%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? May 01 $348 +$634 +182%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the April meeting? Apr 29 $10 +$4 +43%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Apr 29 $10 −$5 -50%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 29 $8 −$7 -90%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima Apr 26 $5 −$4 -72%
Will Udinese Calcio win on 2026-04-18? Apr 26 $18 −$18 -100%
Another critical Cloudflare incident by March 31? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Oilers vs. Predators Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-01-17? Apr 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Australian Open? Apr 26 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Russia enter Sofiivka by January 31? Apr 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 12, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Apr 26 $3 −$3 -100%
Devils vs. Kraken Apr 26 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 80¢ $1,006 1h
Senegal vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $162 1h
Spread: Belgium (-2.5) BUY Belgium 44¢ $102 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 37¢ $204 1h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY Norway 66¢ $202 1h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 46¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $102 1h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 12¢ $369 10h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 13¢ $156 10h
Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $132 44h
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele BUY Yes 58¢ $305 44h
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet BUY Yes 76¢ $101 44h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $131 47h
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY Yes 14¢ $149 47h
Egypt vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 46¢ $102 2d
Exact Score: Colombia 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 14¢ $34 2d
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? SELL Yes 45¢ $301 4d
Will Jordan Bardella win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY Yes 25¢ $125 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 84¢ $2,525 4d
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 85¢ $2,565 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND BUY 3¢ $21 4d
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? BUY Yes 44¢ $25 5d
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? BUY Yes 44¢ $4 5d
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? BUY Yes 44¢ $17 5d
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? BUY Yes 44¢ $9 5d
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? BUY Yes 44¢ $22 5d
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? BUY Yes 44¢ $99 5d
Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? BUY Yes 44¢ $88 5d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 0¢ $15 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 19? BUY No 13¢ $195 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,337.95 · official $4,338.02 (match) · 799 history records