trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | No | 98¢ | 97¢ | $1,935 | $1,921 | −$14 (-1%) |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | No | 86¢ | 90¢ | $10 | $11 | +$1 (+5%) |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands parliamentary election? | Yes | 74¢ | 0¢ | $11 | $0 | −$11 (-100%) |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Yes | 40¢ | 0¢ | $1 | $0 | −$1 (-100%) |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Yes | 62¢ | 0¢ | $10 | $0 | −$10 (-100%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET | Jun 12 | $1,935 | $0 | +0% |
| Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Mar 13 | $610 | −$1 | -0% |
| Will John Cornyn win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? | Mar 12 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| US recession in 2025? | Mar 12 | $2 | +$1 | +37% |
| Will the Party for Freedom win the most seats in the 2025 Netherlands | Oct 09 | $11 | −$11 | -100% |
| Will Carlos Alcaraz win Wimbledon 2025? | Jun 26 | $1 | −$1 | -100% |
| Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? | Jun 26 | $60 | −$60 | -100% |
| Will Trump and Elon say "Kickback" during their Feb 18 interview? | Jun 26 | $11 | +$4 | +35% |
| Will FDP win the most seats in the next German election? | Jan 27 | $64 | −$16 | -25% |
| Will Saquon Barkley be the top Fantasy Running Back? | Jan 06 | $17 | −$17 | -100% |
| Will PSD win the most seats in the Romanian parliamentary election? | Jan 06 | $18 | +$23 | +127% |
| Will there be 155,000,000-160,000,000 votes cast in the U.S. President | Dec 02 | $80 | −$18 | -22% |
| Will Ryan Garcia launch a memecoin by next Friday? | Nov 30 | $10 | −$10 | -100% |
| Will England win the 2024 Euros? | Jun 17 | $500 | −$71 | -14% |
| Elon Musk's $56bn Tesla pay package approved? | Jun 17 | $16 | +$3 | +20% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤30d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| ≤90d | 1 | +0.0% | -9.5% | 0% | 0% | -9.5% |
| all | 15 | -29.5% | -36.2% | 27% | 27% | -14.5% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -36.2% | 27% | -14.5% |
| 10% | -42.3% | 20% | -22.7% |
| 15% | -47.9% | 13% | -30.2% |
| 20% | -53.0% | 7% | -37.0% |