Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:27:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34db…1b63 other 48 markets active 0h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,648 (+12%) realized +$902 · open +$746
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate48%14W / 15L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$277per market
Trades / day17.5pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit48%portable
Net worth$6,842now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$2
7 days+$4
14 days+$837
30 days+$726
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 71% +$1,473
weather 29% −$7
sports 0% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -9.5% -18.1% 60% 40% -8.5%
≤30d 25 -13.3% -21.5% 48% 32% +3.0%
≤90d 29 -13.7% -22.0% 48% 34% +2.9%
all 29 -13.7% -22.0% 48% 34% +2.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.0% 34% +2.9%
10% -29.4% 31% -6.9%
15% -36.2% 31% -15.9%
20% -42.5% 24% -24.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 84% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +14% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt +14% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -10% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
14.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$20 · ×3.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.47 per $1 lost it wins $3.47
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$6,842
Realized+$902
Unrealized+$746
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses14 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions19
Markets (closed)29 / 48
History coverage50d
Avg bet$277
Trades / day17.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit48%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 19 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will June 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? No 77¢ 99¢ $1,742 $2,242 +$500 (+29%)
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? No 72¢ 77¢ $1,431 $1,539 +$108 (+8%)
Will June 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Yes 93¢ 97¢ $912 $944 +$32 (+4%)
Will 2026 be the second-hottest year on record? Yes 62¢ 69¢ $729 $816 +$87 (+12%)
Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on record? Yes 82¢ 84¢ $334 $340 +$6 (+2%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June 2026? No 95¢ 97¢ $251 $256 +$6 (+2%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June 2026? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $249 $249 +$1 (+0%)
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in June 2026? No 92¢ 98¢ $137 $146 +$9 (+7%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.25ºC and 1.29ºC in June 2026? No 93¢ 98¢ $109 $116 +$7 (+6%)
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? No 98¢ 99¢ $81 $82 +$1 (+1%)
Will June 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? No 96¢ 98¢ $42 $42 +$1 (+2%)
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.0m & 4.2m square kilometers? No 79¢ 78¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Will 2026 be the fourth-hottest year on record? Yes $5 $5 −$1 (-11%)
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be at least 5m square kilometers? No 97¢ 94¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-4%)
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.8m & 5m square kilometers? Yes $4 $3 −$0 (-7%)
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.4m & 4.6m square kilometers? Yes $1 $2 +$1 (+40%)
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in June 2026? Yes 63¢ 67¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+7%)
Will June 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? Yes $13 $1 −$11 (-88%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4 Jun 20 $13 +$2 +17%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be less than 4m squ Jun 18 $176 +$2 +1%
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.6m & 4 Jun 16 $99 −$2 -2%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 +$5 +36%
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in May 2026? Jun 10 $283 −$122 -43%
Will May 2026 be the 1st hottest on record? Jun 10 $1,711 +$800 +47%
Will May 2026 be the 2nd hottest on record? Jun 10 $954 +$59 +6%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in May 2 Jun 10 $580 +$60 +10%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in May 2 Jun 08 $1,043 +$37 +4%
Will May 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record? Jun 04 $185 −$42 -22%
Will London have between 5-10mm of precipitation in May? Jun 03 $1 −$1 -100%
Will NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $3 +$2 +91%
Will Hong Kong have between 230-240mm of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 29? Jun 01 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Hong Kong have between 220-230mm of precipitation in May? Jun 01 $27 +$23 +87%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 29? Jun 01 $5 +$8 +172%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 28? May 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 28? May 29 $7 +$13 +181%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on May 26? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 26? May 29 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 27? May 29 $6 −$6 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 33°C or higher on May 26? May 27 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 25? May 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Will May 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record? May 23 $108 −$81 -74%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 22°C on May 9? May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 3? May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 18°C on May 7? May 07 $3 +$2 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 24°C on May 5? May 07 $3 +$2 +58%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 25¢ $26 5m
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 25¢ $26 8m
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 25¢ $13 1h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 25¢ $13 1h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 25¢ $13 1h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 25¢ $13 1h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 25¢ $13 1h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 25¢ $13 1h
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY No 77¢ $62 1h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 25¢ $13 1h
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $57 1h
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 1h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 25¢ $52 2h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 25¢ $26 2h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 25¢ $13 2h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 24¢ $9 2h
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY No 77¢ $78 4h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.10ºC and 1.14ºC in June BUY Yes 18¢ $3 9h
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY No 77¢ $23 11h
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in June BUY No 97¢ $97 18h
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? SELL No 96¢ $77 18h
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 21h
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 22h
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? SELL No 97¢ $5 22h
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.29ºC in June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $27 23h
Will the minimum Arctic sea ice extent this summer be between 4.2m & 4 SELL Yes 12¢ $4 23h
Will 2026 be the hottest year on record? BUY No 77¢ $164 23h
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? SELL No 97¢ $22 26h
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? SELL No 97¢ $28 26h
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower? SELL No 97¢ $28 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6,841.90 · official $6,842.02 (match) · 902 history records