Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T17:38:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x34dc…d280
world · 68 markets active 2h ago
4.5score
+$503 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$811 · open −$180
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP world specialistFresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$2,457
Realized+$811
Unrealized−$180
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses27 / 18
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions23
Markets (closed)45 / 68
History coverage102d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit74%
Chart Positions 23 History 45 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$6
14 days+$286
30 days+$424
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? No 89¢ 98¢ $500 $547 +$47 (+9%)
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? No 92¢ 95¢ $393 $405 +$13 (+3%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 96¢ $328 $340 +$12 (+4%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 61¢ 40¢ $424 $280 −$144 (-34%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 94¢ 79¢ $288 $241 −$47 (-16%)
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027? Yes 88¢ 88¢ $200 $202 +$2 (+1%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 83¢ 47¢ $280 $158 −$122 (-43%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 61¢ 67¢ $100 $110 +$10 (+10%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 16¢ 21¢ $35 $47 +$12 (+33%)
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? Yes 12¢ 10¢ $46 $36 −$10 (-21%)
Will Xi meet with Takaichi by December 31, 2026? No 45¢ 52¢ $20 $23 +$3 (+16%)
Will the US capture another world leader in 2026? No 86¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 88¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? No 89¢ 90¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
Will India strike Pakistan by December 31, 2026? No 77¢ 78¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+1%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 81¢ 82¢ $6 $6 +$0 (+2%)
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+2%)
Iran Nuke before 2027? No 94¢ 93¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Trump and Putin meet next in China? Yes 21¢ 18¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? Yes 22¢ 9¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Will Apple release a new product line before 2027? No 41¢ 62¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+50%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 78¢ 79¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-25%)
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026? Yes 9¢ 4¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-61%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 20¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +5%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 14 $10 −$3 -34%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 14 $10 $0 +2%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2 +$4 +172%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 11 $10 +$4 +38%
Ebola pandemic in 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 09 $10 +$2 +17%
Trump out as President before 2027? Jun 09 $1 $0 -41%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $298 +$24 +8%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $501 +$141 +28%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? Jun 01 $540 +$116 +22%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $415 +$124 +30%
Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? May 27 $1 $0 -33%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 26 $1 $0 -8%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 25 $5 −$1 -19%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 25 $300 −$12 -4%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $380 +$24 +6%
Will Trump attend his son's wedding? May 22 $3 −$3 -97%
Will China announce a U.S. soybean purchase by May 22? May 22 $5 −$5 -89%
Will another country leave OPEC in 2026? May 20 $5 −$1 -22%
Will Trump announce a Taiwan arms sales halt? May 20 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by December 31? May 18 $10 +$2 +18%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 18 $1 +$2 +150%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $200 +$8 +4%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $1 $0 +33%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 14 $100 +$8 +8%
Jimmy Lai released by June 30? May 13 $10 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $300 +$28 +9%
Will Trump say "Taiwan" or "Tibet" during events with Xi Jinping? May 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Trump say "Iran" during events with Xi Jinping? May 11 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Trump visit China by May 15? May 11 $1 −$1 -93%
Will Nicolás Maduro be sentenced to no prison time? May 07 $5 $0 +1%
Will Trump visit North Korea by April 30? May 01 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 01 $210 +$31 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 01 $193 +$82 +42%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? May 01 $500 +$124 +25%
Will the Iranian regime fall by April 30? May 01 $12 +$2 +13%
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m? Apr 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Will North Korea invade South Korea before 2027? Apr 28 $17 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 24 $50 +$7 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $691 +$128 +18%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by April 30? Apr 21 $100 −$4 -4%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 04 $10 +$2 +20%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? Mar 22 $1 $0 +28%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 76% +$506
finance 20% +$135
other 4% −$11
sports 0% +$7
politics 0% −$5
culture 0% −$1
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Cuba military clash in 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $5 1h
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL No 20¢ $7 1h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 86¢ $10 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $41 15h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 34¢ $50 24h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 31¢ $161 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 84¢ $279 28h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 20 BUY No 61¢ $100 39h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $20 40h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $40 47h
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 57¢ $80 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $20 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 52¢ $3 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 55¢ $50 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $479 2d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $500 2d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 54¢ $20 2d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $2 3d
Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $100 3d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 85¢ $180 3d
Will Reza Pahlavi lead Iran in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $173 3d
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 60¢ $14 3d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 85¢ $80 3d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $200 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $200 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 80¢ $85 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 79¢ $100 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-9.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +20.4% +8.9% 62% 38% +0.9%
≤30d 26 +7.5% -2.8% 58% 35% +4.5%
≤90d 45 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 40% +5.3%
all 45 +0.0% -9.5% 60% 40% +5.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.5% 40% +5.3%
10% -18.2% 20% -4.8%
15% -26.1% 9% -14.0%
20% -33.3% 7% -22.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,456.56 · official $2,474.23 (match) · 190 history records