Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:13:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
34 0x34dc…3cdc sports 254 markets active 1h ago coverage 587d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$3,679 (+6%) realized +$3,999 · open −$320
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%130W / 112L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$257per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$108est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$457now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$229
7 days+$489
14 days+$1,146
30 days+$1,737
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 54% +$4,539
politics 21% −$1,691
other 21% +$1,703
world 3% −$1,810
crypto 2% +$14
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +68.2% +52.2% 80% 80% +40.0%
≤30d 25 +23.6% +11.8% 60% 60% -2.9%
≤90d 81 -2.2% -11.5% 52% 51% -2.9%
all 242 -1.0% -10.4% 54% 51% -5.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 51% -5.2%
10% -19.0% 48% -14.3%
15% -26.8% 41% -22.6%
20% -34.0% 32% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +26% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$106 vs −$95 · ×1.11 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.29 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

587d coverage
Net worth$457
Realized+$3,999
Unrealized−$320
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses130 / 112
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$108
Open positions3
Markets (closed)242 / 254
History coverage587d
Avg bet$257
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 242 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 48¢ 44¢ $496 $455 −$41 (-8%)
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 47¢ $280 $0 −$280 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 28 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $504 +$200 +40%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $51 +$29 +57%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $2 +$3 +129%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 +$2 +64%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 22 $3 −$3 -98%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 $0 +16%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $2 +$7 +344%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 21 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 Jun 20 $7 +$11 +157%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $318 +$243 +76%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 +$1 +73%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $4 +$2 +48%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $670 +$650 +97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$3 +262%
Counter-Strike: BIG vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $5 +$4 +76%
Counter-Strike: TYLOO vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 09 $16 +$6 +36%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -98%
Counter-Strike: Monte vs paiN (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 08 $5 −$5 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $8,430 +$2,228 +26%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Jun 06 $13,600 −$1,632 -12%
Hamburg European Open: Luciano Darderi vs Yannick Hanfmann May 20 $5 +$3 +59%
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 20 $4 −$1 -14%
Hamburg European Open: Tommy Paul vs Tomas Etcheverry May 20 $5 +$4 +73%
Hamburg European Open: Ugo Humbert vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $5 −$5 -99%
Hamburg European Open: Ignacio Buse vs Jakub Mensik May 19 $1 −$1 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Casper Ruud May 17 $1,003 +$158 +16%
Counter-Strike: GamerLegion vs Natus Vincere (BO5) - IEM Atlanta Playo May 17 $16 −$16 -98%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs GamerLegion (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Playoffs May 16 $39 −$38 -99%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $1 +$2 +206%
Counter-Strike: Sinners vs Astralis (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 14 $2 +$1 +52%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Martin Landaluce vs Daniil Medvedev May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Luciano Darderi May 13 $3 −$2 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Casper Ruud vs Karen Khachanov May 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrey Rublev May 13 $2 −$2 -97%
Counter-Strike: paiN vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 13 $2 +$4 +197%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Daniil Medvedev May 12 $2 +$1 +67%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Andrey Rublev vs Nikoloz Basilashvili May 12 $3 +$1 +34%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Karen Khachanov vs Dino Prizmic May 12 $1 +$2 +165%
Counter-Strike: Legacy vs M80 (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group B May 12 $5 +$3 +55%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Jannik Sinner vs Andrea Pellegrino May 11 $1 −$1 -97%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Luciano Darderi vs Alexander Zverev May 11 $5 −$5 -99%
Internazionali BNL d'Italia: Rafael Jodar vs Learner Tien May 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $14 −$14 -100%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs BC.Game Esports (BO3) - IEM Atlanta Group A May 11 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 48¢ $504 34m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $284 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 19h
Will Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? AND Will Norway win on BUY $2 20h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026 BUY 46¢ $5 20h
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? AND Will Ecuador vs. Germany end BUY $2 20h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Will France win on 2026-06-26? BUY 40¢ $2 21h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 63¢ $51 3d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $3 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 71¢ $504 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? AND Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND BUY 15¢ $2 3d
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar end in a draw? AND Will Switzerl BUY $2 3d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 29¢ $2 3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? A BUY 35¢ $2 4d
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $2 4d
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $2 4d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-22? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY 60¢ $3 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Wi BUY 48¢ $5 5d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20 BUY 38¢ $7 5d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 56¢ $318 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 52¢ $3 10d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $2 10d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $4 10d
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Ciryl Gane 50¢ $670 10d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 16d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 16d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 16d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $1 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $456.61 · official $467.61 · 538 history records