Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T03:55:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

34
0x34df…18b0
other · 411 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$189 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$141 · open −$42
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fresh edge
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$212
Realized−$141
Unrealized−$42
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses198 / 192
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions21
Markets (closed)390 / 411
History coverage189d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day5.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit40%
Chart Positions 21 History 390 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days+$14
14 days+$18
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 47¢ 61¢ $46 $59 +$13 (+29%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-4%)
Will Mercedes be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Yes 74¢ 85¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+15%)
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 22¢ 22¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $16 $14 −$2 (-10%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 5¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+24%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 12¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+17%)
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) Australia 68¢ 68¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+1%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Yes 57¢ 56¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 Under 55¢ 55¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 16¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will George Russell be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 45¢ 24¢ $9 $5 −$4 (-47%)
Will Qatar advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 80¢ 72¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-9%)
Will Julian Alvarez be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-15%)
Will Lamine Yamal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 4¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-19%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+4%)
Will Mikel Oyarzabal be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ 8¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-15%)
Will Michael Olise be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-47%)
Will Netflix close Warner Bros acquisition? Yes 68¢ 1¢ $51 $1 −$50 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$8 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $5 +$2 +42%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -100%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 14 $34 +$15 +44%
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $5 +$1 +17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $30 +$20 +66%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 +$3 +19%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 +$3 +67%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$3 +19%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $11 +$4 +37%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -95%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $8 −$5 -56%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 40.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Cobolli vs. Zverev: Match O/U 38.5 Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $16 +$7 +42%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 +$4 +73%
Will Alexander Zverev win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 08 $20 +$23 +112%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 08 $33 +$24 +74%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 07 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 07 $59 −$36 -61%
Flavio Cobolli vs. Alexander Zverev: Total Sets O/U 3.5 Jun 07 $25 −$9 -35%
Maja Chwalinska vs. Mirra Andreeva: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 07 $5 +$2 +46%
Will Mirra Andreeva win the 2026 Roland Garros Women's Singles? Jun 07 $10 +$3 +29%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 04 $5 +$5 +97%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $21 +$46 +216%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Canadian Grand Prix? May 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $8 +$3 +33%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $5 +$2 +34%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $5 +$2 +36%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-05-17? May 20 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Arsenal reach the UEFA Champions League final? May 20 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-15? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manchester City win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Scottie Scheffler win the 2026 PGA Championship? May 20 $8 −$8 -100%
Spread: Manchester City FC (-1.5) May 17 $5 +$2 +48%
Will Manchester City win the 2025-2026 FA Cup? May 17 $10 +$4 +36%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Miami Grand Prix? May 06 $10 +$22 +218%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-04-15? Apr 16 $10 +$6 +57%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 16 $20 +$31 +155%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. FC Barcelona: O/U 3.5 Apr 16 $5 +$5 +101%
Spread: Paris Saint-Germain FC (-1.5) Apr 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 75% −$183
sports 23% +$68
world 1% −$63
politics 0% −$2
crypto 0% +$4
culture 0% −$6
economics 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Australia vs. Türkiye: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 55¢ $5 53m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $24 54m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 SELL Under 87¢ $3 58m
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 55¢ $2 1h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 SELL Under 88¢ $7 1h
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY Yes 61¢ $2 1h
Spread: Türkiye (-1.5) BUY Australia 68¢ $5 2h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 61¢ $5 2h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Switzerland 60¢ $10 11h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 11h
Will George Russell win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 11h
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Catalunya Grand Prix? BUY Yes 22¢ $10 11h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 68¢ $3 15h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $5 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 19h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 63¢ $5 19h
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 69¢ $30 19h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $5 19h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $10 19h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 SELL Under 99¢ $6 24h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $27 24h
United States vs. Paraguay: Paraguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 84¢ $5 25h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 99¢ $18 26h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 83¢ $10 26h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 82¢ $5 26h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $15 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $5 26h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 72¢ $19 26h
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $5 26h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +0.5% -9.1% 62% 62% -6.5%
≤30d 45 -5.5% -14.5% 58% 58% -9.7%
≤90d 90 +4.3% -5.6% 58% 58% -1.1%
all 390 -0.3% -9.8% 51% 50% -11.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover5.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 50% -11.7%
10% -18.4% 46% -20.2%
15% -26.3% 39% -27.9%
20% -33.5% 29% -34.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $211.51 · official $211.51 (match) · 1366 history records