Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:37:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
34 0x34e2…4083 other 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$59 (+25%) realized +$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +75% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +46% what you keep after slip
Net edge+46%after slip
Net WR80%break-even
Win rate80%4W / 1L
Drawdown13%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day12.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$30now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% +$31
sports 38% +$69
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +80%
net ROI/market (all)+58.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +75.0% +58.4% 80% 80% +35.8%
≤30d 5 +75.0% +58.4% 80% 80% +35.8%
≤90d 5 +75.0% +58.4% 80% 80% +35.8%
all 5 +75.0% +58.4% 80% 80% +35.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.3 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +58.4% 80% +35.8%
10% +43.2% 80% +22.8%
15% +29.4% 60% +11.0%
20% +16.7% 40% +0.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 78% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +50% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +75% · $-wt +50% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$28 vs −$13 · ×2.22 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×8.86 per $1 lost it wins $8.86
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$30
Realized+$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)80%
Wins / losses4 / 1
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)5 / 6
History coverage2d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day12.3
Drawdown13%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 5 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Yes 65¢ 64¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $13 −$13 -100%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $13 +$44 +344%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $61 +$17 +28%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 21 $13 +$8 +59%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.77 · official $29.77 (match) · 21 history records