Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:16:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
34 0x34e7…3dba other 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$26 (+14%) realized +$33 · open −$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR71%break-even
Win rate71%5W / 2L
Drawdown62%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Kalshi-fit12%portable
Net worth$23now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 83% −$5
crypto 17% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +71%
net ROI/market (all)+2.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +13.5% +2.7% 71% 71% +5.0%
≤30d 7 +13.5% +2.7% 71% 71% +5.0%
≤90d 7 +13.5% +2.7% 71% 71% +5.0%
all 7 +13.5% +2.7% 71% 71% +5.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.7% 71% +5.0%
10% -7.1% 71% -5.0%
15% -16.1% 71% -14.2%
20% -24.3% 43% -22.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 55% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$20 · ×0.64 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.61 per $1 lost it wins $1.61
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$23
Realized+$33
Unrealized−$7
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses5 / 2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown62%
Kalshi-fit12%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Yes 84¢ 64¢ $30 $23 −$7 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 +$9 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $30 +$13 +44%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $30 +$22 +73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $20 +$13 +62%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 84¢ $30 1h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 29h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $20 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 58¢ $10 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $30 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $33 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $20 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $23.04 · official $24.11 · 13 history records