Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:01:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34e8…a833 world 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 521d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate37%32W / 54L
Drawdown81%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days+$1
14 days−$3
30 days−$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 30% +$3
other 29% +$2
politics 21% −$2
sports 16% −$1
economics 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
tech 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+1.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.9% -7.8% 43% 14% -9.0%
≤30d 16 -6.1% -15.1% 25% 6% -10.4%
≤90d 61 +21.4% +9.9% 33% 8% -9.4%
all 86 +11.7% +1.1% 37% 8% -9.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.1% 8% -9.4%
10% -8.6% 6% -18.1%
15% -17.4% 6% -26.0%
20% -25.5% 3% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
78% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late +33% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

521d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses32 / 54
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)86 / 87
History coverage521d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown81%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 86 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Yes 49¢ 48¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 18 $42 $0 -1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $4 $0 -6%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $13 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $37 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $11 $0 +4%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $29 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $7 +$1 +18%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $44 −$4 -9%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Jun 10 $2 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $18 $0 -3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 09 $44 $0 +1%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $28 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 06 $3 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 05 $40 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 05 $32 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 04 $66 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $76 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $12 +$5 +40%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $17 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $40 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 16 $65 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $10 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Apr 27 $40 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 26 $80 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $1 $0 +4%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $79 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 25 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $26 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $40 $0 +0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 23 $6 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $53 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 22 $187 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Apr 21 $13 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 19 $39 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 19 $36 $0 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $7 $0 +5%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 18 $36 $0 +0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 17 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 16 $11 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 15 $15 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 14 $38 $0 +0%
Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the 2026 Masters tournament? Apr 14 $74 $0 +0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 13 $35 +$1 +2%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $4 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 12 $34 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $38 $0 +0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 09 $28 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 08 $38 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 08 $1 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $28 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 49¢ $41 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $41 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $0 12h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 83¢ $42 14h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $3 24h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $4 26h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $1 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 29h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $13 33h
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 99¢ $17 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 98¢ $21 2d
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 98¢ $37 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 28¢ $12 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $15 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $15 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 20¢ $8 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 17¢ $7 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $3 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $10 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $10 7d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $9 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $20 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.08 · official $13.30 (match) · 288 history records