Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:16:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
34 0x34ec…f538 sports 29 markets active 2h ago coverage 316d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$350 (+2%) realized −$751 · open +$1,101
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%11W / 17L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$777per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$272est.
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$2,854now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,609
7 days+$3,080
14 days+$3,080
30 days+$3,080
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% +$5,903
other 21% −$1,721
crypto 17% −$1,619
world 1% −$300
politics 1% −$142
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-18.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 19 +11.8% +1.2% 47% 47% +12.4%
≤30d 19 +11.8% +1.2% 47% 47% +12.4%
≤90d 19 +11.8% +1.2% 47% 47% +12.4%
all 28 -9.9% -18.5% 39% 39% -1.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.5% 39% -1.6%
10% -26.3% 39% -11.0%
15% -33.4% 39% -19.6%
20% -40.0% 36% -27.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 45% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +20% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt +5% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$884) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -58% → late +38% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$829 vs −$476 · ×1.74 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.13 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

316d coverage
Net worth$2,854
Realized−$751
Unrealized+$1,101
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses11 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$272
Open positions1
Markets (closed)28 / 29
History coverage316d
Avg bet$777
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 28 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Argentina leading at halftime? Yes 61¢ 100¢ $1,752 $2,854 +$1,101 (+63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $307 +$805 +262%
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $130 +$267 +206%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $216 −$213 -98%
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $299 −$299 -100%
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $643 +$276 +43%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 27 $797 +$945 +119%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $496 −$486 -98%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 26 $2,910 +$3,184 +109%
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P Jun 26 $457 +$510 +112%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner Jun 26 $4,050 −$66 -2%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $755 −$727 -96%
Norway vs. France: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 26 $190 −$186 -98%
Game Handicap: HULIGANI (-1.5) vs Enjoy (+1.5) Jun 26 $913 +$773 +85%
Dota 2: Enjoy vs HULIGANI - Game 2 Winner Jun 26 $884 +$827 +94%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $814 −$796 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,355 −$1,327 -98%
Ecuador vs. Germany: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $557 −$557 -100%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 24 $286 −$282 -98%
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Jun 24 $448 +$434 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 29, 5PM ET Oct 29 $399 −$399 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 23, 6AM ET Oct 23 $199 +$192 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 14, 6AM ET Oct 14 $899 +$905 +101%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $111,000 on September 9 at 4PM ET? Sep 09 $609 −$609 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - September 9, 2PM ET Sep 09 $120 −$120 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 11PM ET Aug 19 $598 −$598 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 18, 10PM ET Aug 19 $990 −$990 -100%
Will Trump say "Biden" 3+ times during conference with Putin on August Aug 15 $142 −$142 -100%
Will Trump say "BRICS" or "NATO" 2+ times during conference with Putin Aug 15 $300 −$300 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,506 1h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 61¢ $267 1h
Colombia vs. Portugal: Portugal O/U 0.5 BUY Under 32¢ $130 2h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 50¢ $216 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 27¢ $307 3h
Croatia vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 69¢ $643 4h
Croatia vs. Ghana: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 38¢ $299 21h
New Zealand vs. Belgium: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 45¢ $797 24h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 31¢ $94 28h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 34¢ $402 28h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $9 32h
Spread: France (-1.5) BUY France 47¢ $2,901 32h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P SELL ex-Sashi Academy 100¢ $967 32h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Team Bald 50¢ $1,942 32h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 51¢ $5 33h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 51¢ $1,833 33h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 51¢ $101 33h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Team Bald 51¢ $101 33h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner SELL Power Rangers 49¢ $2,041 33h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $98 33h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $98 33h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $201 33h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $188 33h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 50¢ $102 33h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 44¢ $305 34h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 46¢ $508 34h
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald - Game 1 Winner BUY Power Rangers 45¢ $508 34h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula SELL Walczaki $15 34h
Counter-Strike: ex-Sashi Academy vs eternal premium (BO3) - European P BUY ex-Sashi Academy 46¢ $457 35h
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula BUY Walczaki 41¢ $51 35h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,853.71 · official $2,853.71 (match) · 83 history records