Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:37:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34ec…7483 crypto 21 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$80 (+4%) realized +$90 · open −$10
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -39% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -49% what you keep after slip
Net edge-49%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate45%9W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day11.5pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$36now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 65% +$266
crypto 35% −$229
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -38.6% -44.5% 45% 25% -7.3%
≤30d 20 -38.6% -44.5% 45% 25% -7.3%
≤90d 20 -38.6% -44.5% 45% 25% -7.3%
all 20 -38.6% -44.5% 45% 25% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -44.5% 25% -7.3%
10% -49.8% 20% -16.2%
15% -54.6% 10% -24.3%
20% -59.1% 5% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 81% · top 2 88% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -39% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late -45% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$37 vs −$26 · ×1.42 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$36
Realized+$90
Unrealized−$10
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses9 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage4d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day11.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 42¢ 32¢ $46 $36 −$10 (-23%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $720 +$26 +4%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $452 +$268 +59%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $27 −$21 -76%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $24 +$3 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 19 $53 −$53 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 19 $16 −$3 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 19 $310 +$24 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 19 $73 −$73 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 19 $61 −$60 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 19 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 19 $61 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 19 $16 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 19 $11 −$4 -35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 19 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 19 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 19 $7 +$3 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 19 $11 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 19 $5 +$1 +29%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $47 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 95¢ $746 2h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $720 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $720 5h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 63¢ $7 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 17¢ $7 2d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $27 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 62¢ $344 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 12¢ $53 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 19¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET SELL Down 43¢ $11 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $10 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Down 75¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Down 56¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET SELL Up 83¢ $328 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $305 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $73 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $61 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $31 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Up 91¢ $6 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET SELL Down 68¢ $57 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $56 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET SELL Up 55¢ $21 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $7 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Down 67¢ $7 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $35.60 · official $35.60 (match) · 55 history records