Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:08:15+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0

score

34 0x34f2…c274 crypto 23 markets active 8h ago coverage 30d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$0 · open +$3

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -48% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -54% what you keep after slip

Net edge-54%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate52%11W / 10L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$988per market

Trades / day0.8pace

Kalshi-fit96%portable

Net worth$2,078now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days+$15

7 days+$11

14 days−$1

30 days+$1

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-52.5%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	6	-16.5%	-24.5%	83%	0%	-9.4%
≤30d	20	-44.9%	-50.1%	55%	0%	-9.5%
≤90d	21	-47.5%	-52.5%	52%	0%	-9.5%
all	21	-47.5%	-52.5%	52%	0%	-9.5%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.8 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-52.5%	0%	-9.5%
10%	-57.1%	0%	-18.2%
15%	-61.2%	0%	-26.1%
20%	-65.0%	0%	-33.3%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -48% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,058) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -40% → late -54% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$4 · ×0.84 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.93 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage

Net worth$2,078

Realized+$0

Unrealized+$3

Win rate (resolved)52%

Wins / losses11 / 10

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)21 / 23

History coverage30d

Avg bet$988

Trades / day0.8

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 21 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 15?	No	100¢	100¢	$2,070	$2,073	+$3 (+0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	95¢	96¢	$5	$5	+$0 (+1%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 10 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14?	Jun 15	$2,065	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 14?	Jun 14	$2,061	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 13?	Jun 14	$2,058	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 13?	Jun 13	$149	$0	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 13?	Jun 13	$1,906	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9?	Jun 09	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6?	Jun 07	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 4?	Jun 05	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1?	Jun 02	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 29?	May 29	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26?	May 26	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	May 25	$2,068	+$6	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 24?	May 24	$2,067	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 23?	May 24	$2,063	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23?	May 23	$2,054	+$4	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22?	May 23	$2,055	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 22?	May 22	$2,051	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 21?	May 21	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 18?	May 19	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 16?	May 17	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 16?	May 16	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of Solana be less than $20 on June 15?	BUY No	100¢	$2,070	7h
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 14?	BUY No	100¢	$2,065	14h
Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on June 14?	BUY No	100¢	$2,061	33h
Will Ethereum dip to $1,450 on June 13?	BUY No	100¢	$2,058	38h
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on June 13?	BUY No	100¢	$149	2d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 13?	BUY No	100¢	$1,906	2d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.00 on June 9?	BUY No	0¢	$4	6d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	8d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 4?	BUY Yes	0¢	$0	10d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,600 on June 4?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	10d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	13d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	95¢	$5	15d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.10 on May 29?	BUY No	0¢	$4	17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 26?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	20d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	BUY No	100¢	$2,068	21d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 24?	BUY No	100¢	$2,067	22d
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 23?	BUY No	100¢	$2,063	22d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.20 on May 23?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,054	23d
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22?	BUY No	100¢	$2,055	23d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,300 and $2,400 on May 22?	BUY No	100¢	$2,051	24d
Will the price of XRP be above $1.30 on May 21?	BUY No	0¢	$4	25d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 18?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	27d
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	29d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 16?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	30d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,078.05 · official $2,078.05 (match) · 37 history records