Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T14:26:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
34 0x34f3…47d9 crypto 111 markets active 2h ago coverage 77d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$113 (+4%) realized +$116 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate54%59W / 51L
Drawdown92%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days+$21
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$89
sports 1% −$15
other 1% −$2
politics 1% +$1
world 0% −$2
finance 0% +$2
tech 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -61.7% -65.3% 33% 33% -25.7%
≤30d 9 -1.2% -10.6% 56% 33% +0.5%
≤90d 110 +1.5% -8.2% 54% 45% -7.3%
all 110 +1.5% -8.2% 54% 45% -7.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.2% 45% -7.3%
10% -17.0% 37% -16.2%
15% -25.0% 29% -24.3%
20% -32.4% 25% -31.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
15% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$14 · ×0.96 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

77d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$116
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses59 / 51
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)110 / 111
History coverage77d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown92%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 110 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will US withdraw from NATO before 2027? Yes 13¢ 5¢ $5 $2 −$3 (-59%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 24 $25 +$4 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 02 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET May 31 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET May 29 $106 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 29 $26 +$18 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 28 $5 +$16 +296%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET May 19 $5 +$14 +266%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 11 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET May 11 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET May 10 $16 +$15 +96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET May 09 $5 +$6 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET May 09 $5 +$9 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET May 09 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 09 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET May 09 $5 +$3 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET May 09 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET May 09 $11 −$10 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET May 09 $31 +$51 +162%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET May 09 $5 +$12 +221%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET May 09 $5 +$11 +217%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 08 $5 +$3 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET May 08 $203 −$200 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 08 $25 +$9 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 08 $5 +$5 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 08 $100 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:30AM-5:35AM ET May 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET May 08 $25 +$7 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET May 08 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET May 08 $5 +$6 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 08 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 08 $106 +$30 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 08 $105 −$3 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET May 08 $25 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET May 08 $51 +$16 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET May 08 $100 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET May 08 $101 +$13 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET May 07 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET May 07 $5 −$4 -72%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET BUY Down 86¢ $25 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Up 18¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 22d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $5 23d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $5 24d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET SELL Up 7¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $5 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $100 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 29, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $26 26d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 24¢ $5 27d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Up 26¢ $5 36d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $26 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 1¢ $5 44d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:15AM-5:20AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $5 45d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $25 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $5 46d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $26 46d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.06 · official $2.06 (match) · 266 history records