Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T20:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
34 0x34f9…12eb sports 1086 markets active 2h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2,745 (-6%) realized −$2,846 · open +$101
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR35%break-even
Win rate35%376W / 709L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day9.4pace
Fees−$397est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$285now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$905
7 days+$794
14 days+$699
30 days+$199
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$2,552
other 1% −$40
culture 0% −$103
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +35%
net ROI/market (all)-10.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 +45.5% +31.6% 41% 41% +20.2%
≤30d 249 +10.6% +0.1% 37% 37% -7.0%
≤90d 609 +2.5% -7.3% 34% 34% -12.2%
all 1085 -1.4% -10.8% 35% 35% -14.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.8% 35% -14.8%
10% -19.3% 34% -22.9%
15% -27.1% 34% -30.4%
20% -34.3% 34% -37.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 3% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$76 vs −$44 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$285
Realized−$2,846
Unrealized+$101
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses376 / 709
Est. fees paid−$397
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1085 / 1086
History coverage161d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day9.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1085 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Team Falcons 39¢ 60¢ $183 $285 +$101 (+55%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 347 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $123 +$64 +52%
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $55 +$68 +125%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 19 $45 +$175 +388%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $48 +$86 +180%
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert Jun 19 $41 +$97 +237%
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer Jun 18 $50 +$128 +255%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $40 +$51 +128%
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka Jun 18 $40 +$60 +150%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $36 −$35 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina Jun 18 $37 +$198 +533%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 18 $37 −$37 -98%
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman Jun 18 $38 −$37 -98%
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn Jun 18 $39 −$38 -98%
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 18 $39 −$38 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys Jun 18 $34 −$33 -97%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $33 +$91 +276%
Ghana leading at halftime? Jun 17 $41 −$40 -98%
Valorant: KRÜ Spark vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Jun 17 $41 +$73 +180%
ITF Tulsa: Ozan Baris vs Justin Boulais Jun 17 $19 +$71 +365%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $39 −$38 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $37 −$36 -98%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 17 $29 −$28 -97%
Halle Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Daniel Altmaier Jun 17 $34 +$70 +208%
Grass Court Championships: Paula Badosa vs Coco Gauff Jun 17 $9 +$139 +1519%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy (BO5) - Asia Masters Playo Jun 17 $9 −$9 -98%
LoL: Nongshim Esports Academy vs T1 Academy - Game 4 Winner Jun 17 $11 −$11 -99%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Denis Shapovalov Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
HSBC Championships: Brandon Nakashima vs Ignacio Buse Jun 17 $32 −$31 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $11 +$31 +279%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $15 +$17 +114%
Asuncion 2: Joaquin Aguilar vs Gustavo Almeida Jun 17 $13 −$13 -98%
ITF Tulsa: Alex Rybakov vs Bruno Kuzuhara Jun 17 $11 +$17 +152%
Asuncion 2: Samuel Heredia vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 16 $8 −$8 -98%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 16 $6 −$6 -97%
Rainbow Six Siege: Falcons Esport vs G2 Esports (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $39 −$38 -98%
HSBC Championships: Cameron Norrie vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 16 $38 −$37 -98%
France vs. Senegal: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $39 −$38 -98%
Rainbow Six Siege: Rebels Gaming vs Team Secret (BO1) - Europe MENA Le Jun 16 $40 −$39 -98%
Nottingham Open: Sara Bejlek vs Karolina Pliskova Jun 16 $40 −$39 -98%
HSBC Championships: Alex de Minaur vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 16 $58 −$57 -98%
HSBC Championships: Aleksandar Kovacevic vs Francisco Cerundolo Jun 16 $41 −$40 -98%
HSBC Championships: Ignacio Buse vs Marcos Giron Jun 16 $40 +$145 +365%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $32 −$31 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $36 −$35 -98%
Asuncion 2: Carlos Maria Zarate vs Juan Sebastian Gomez Jun 15 $39 +$129 +329%
Rainbow Six Siege: Fnatic vs Heretics (BO1) - Europe MENA League Stage Jun 15 $80 −$79 -98%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $41 −$40 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $41 +$80 +194%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $60 −$59 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $80 1h
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner BUY Team Falcons 39¢ $107 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs SELL Spirit 100¢ $187 1h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY Spirit 65¢ $123 3h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner SELL Leviatán Esports 100¢ $123 3h
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Leviatán Esports - Map 1 Winner BUY Leviatán Esports 44¢ $55 4h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova SELL Aryna Sabalenka 100¢ $220 4h
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Aryna Sabalenka 20¢ $45 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL G2 100¢ $134 5h
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY G2 35¢ $48 6h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert SELL Ugo Humbert 100¢ $138 6h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer SELL 100 Thieves 99¢ $178 22h
Rainbow Six Siege: 100 Thieves vs Shopify Rebellion (BO1) - North Amer BUY 100 Thieves 27¢ $50 24h
HSBC Championships: Hamad Medjedovic vs Ugo Humbert BUY Ugo Humbert 29¢ $41 24h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner SELL FURIA 100¢ $91 25h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 2 Winner BUY FURIA 43¢ $40 25h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka SELL Rinky Hijikata 100¢ $100 25h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 41¢ $4 26h
HSBC Championships: Rinky Hijikata vs Jiri Lehecka BUY Rinky Hijikata 39¢ $36 26h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z - Map 1 Winner BUY FURIA 29¢ $36 27h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina SELL Alexandra Eala 100¢ $235 27h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 17¢ $25 28h
Grass Court Championships: Alexandra Eala vs Elena Rybakina BUY Alexandra Eala 13¢ $13 28h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $37 29h
Nottingham Open: Marie Bouzkova vs Hannah Klugman BUY Hannah Klugman 14¢ $38 30h
Halle Open: Ben Shelton vs Ethan Quinn BUY Ethan Quinn 28¢ $39 31h
Nottingham Open: Viktorija Golubic vs Zeynep Sonmez BUY Zeynep Sonmez 35¢ $39 32h
Grass Court Championships: Elina Svitolina vs Eva Lys BUY Eva Lys 8¢ $34 33h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $124 43h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 26¢ $33 44h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $284.60 · official $176.40 · 1881 history records