Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:33:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
34 0x34f9…0540 world 319 markets active 0h ago coverage 460d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
Total PnL +$3,037 (+4%) realized +$2,466 · open −$95
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR27%break-even
Win rate39%123W / 190L
Whale WR68%big bets
Drawdown48%max
Avg bet$254per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$2,334now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$298
7 days−$703
14 days−$483
30 days−$127
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$3,041
other 14% −$480
politics 11% −$586
crypto 7% +$411
sports 1% +$8
economics 1% +$64
tech 1% −$153
finance 0% +$65
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +27%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 -27.7% -34.6% 27% 13% -36.3%
≤30d 52 +10.6% +0.1% 27% 17% -12.7%
≤90d 177 +14.8% +3.9% 46% 29% -4.6%
all 313 -1.3% -10.7% 39% 27% -6.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 27% -6.7%
10% -19.3% 21% -15.6%
15% -27.1% 14% -23.8%
20% -34.2% 12% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +4% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 68% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -22% → late +19% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$70 vs −$33 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

460d coverage
Net worth$2,334
Realized+$2,466
Unrealized−$95
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses123 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)68%
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions6
Markets (closed)313 / 319
History coverage460d
Avg bet$254
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown48%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 313 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Yes 64¢ 62¢ $1,900 $1,826 −$74 (-4%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? Yes 65¢ 72¢ $276 $305 +$30 (+11%)
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 29¢ 24¢ $200 $162 −$38 (-19%)
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026? No $30 $17 −$13 (-45%)
Will Marco Rubio have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Yes 13¢ 16¢ $13 $16 +$2 (+19%)
Will Trump talk to Mojtaba Khamenei by June 30? Yes $10 $8 −$2 (-18%)
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? No 27¢ $21 $0 −$21 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Yes $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? No $31 $0 −$31 (-100%)
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Yes $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? No $38 $0 −$38 (-100%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? No $11 $0 −$11 (-100%)
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? Yes $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? Jun 14 $109 +$104 +96%
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 14 $100 +$3 +3%
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? Jun 14 $260 −$210 -81%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 21, 2026? Jun 14 $36 +$10 +28%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 14 $35 −$10 -28%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $400 −$72 -18%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ju Jun 13 $100 −$52 -52%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 13 $22 +$2 +10%
Will Zelenskyy talk to Putin by December 31? Jun 13 $218 −$49 -23%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 12 $24 −$24 -100%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $155 −$20 -13%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 11 $509 −$199 -39%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried before 2027? Jun 08 $103 −$53 -51%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $234 −$86 -37%
Israeli forces enter Beirut by June 30? Jun 08 $100 −$47 -47%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $999 −$34 -3%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 07 $123 −$9 -7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 22? Jun 07 $5 −$4 -79%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $150 −$82 -55%
Iran closes its airspace by July 15? Jun 07 $31 −$16 -53%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 07 $160 −$45 -28%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 6, 2026? Jun 06 $11 −$11 -96%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 04 $800 −$9 -1%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $2,524 −$213 -8%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $1,636 +$560 +34%
Will Bernie Sanders announce a Presidential run before 2027? Jun 03 $16 −$7 -45%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 03 $250 +$23 +9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 01 $300 +$40 +13%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 3? Jun 01 $12 $0 -2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $701 +$27 +4%
Will Trump speak to Ahmed al-Sharaa in May? May 31 $178 +$51 +29%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? May 31 $10 −$10 -100%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 30 $421 −$21 -5%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? May 29 $1,406 +$757 +54%
Will Oman join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 29 $20 −$4 -20%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by May 31? May 28 $439 −$35 -8%
U.S. agrees to a new trade deal with "European Union" before 2027? May 28 $72 −$47 -65%
Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027? May 27 $96 −$30 -32%
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by June 30? May 27 $200 −$63 -31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 26? May 25 $109 −$10 -9%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 24? May 24 $25 −$19 -76%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? May 24 $156 −$86 -55%
Will Anthropic make a deal with the Pentagon by June 30? May 23 $38 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 23 $100 +$19 +19%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 23 $1,583 +$216 +14%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 31, 2026? May 23 $112 −$7 -6%
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? May 23 $34 +$14 +41%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 22 $76 −$28 -36%
US x China tariff agreement by May 31? May 20 $207 −$49 -24%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 18 $1,336 −$26 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 66¢ $100 0m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 31¢ $100 2m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No $10 4m
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No $20 5m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 27¢ $100 5m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $198 16m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $34 16m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 74¢ $3 18m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $9 19m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 68¢ $300 22m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 64¢ $300 22m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $400 22m
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 63¢ $900 22m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $15 26m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 73¢ $13 27m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 71¢ $185 32m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 72¢ $649 34m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $112 34m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 SELL Yes 36¢ $103 37m
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $76 41m
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? SELL Yes 75¢ $38 41m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 73¢ $294 41m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $5 42m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $148 44m
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY Yes 35¢ $100 46m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 76¢ $4 47m
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? SELL Yes 78¢ $1 49m
Will JD Vance attend the G7 Summit? SELL Yes $4 52m
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by June 30? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 57m
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 46¢ $185 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,333.80 · official $2,333.80 (match) · 2235 history records