Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T22:27:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
34 0x34fc…86f6 sports 7 markets active 2h ago coverage 15d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+1%) realized +$3 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate67%4W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$24now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$15
7 days−$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% +$3
other 32% −$5
world 20% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -14.0% -22.2% 50% 50% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -8.5% -17.2% 67% 33% -8.9%
≤90d 6 -8.5% -17.2% 67% 33% -8.9%
all 6 -8.5% -17.2% 67% 33% -8.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 33% -8.9%
10% -25.1% 33% -17.6%
15% -32.4% 33% -25.6%
20% -39.0% 33% -32.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 97% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$9 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

15d coverage
Net worth$24
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses4 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)6 / 7
History coverage15d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 68¢ 64¢ $26 $24 −$2 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $4 −$3 -75%
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 15 $19 +$10 +54%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $12 +$8 +64%
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou Jun 10 $15 −$15 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $9 $0 +4%
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? Jun 01 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $26 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $1 1h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 42¢ $4 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof SELL Paper Rex 100¢ $30 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 64¢ $19 5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 100¢ $19 5h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 60¢ $12 13h
Valorant: Global Esports vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Grou BUY Global Esports 72¢ $15 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $10 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $9 14d
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by May 31? BUY No 99¢ $10 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.28 · official $24.28 (match) · 12 history records