Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T10:32:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x3501…4a49 crypto 92 markets active 2h ago coverage 597d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+0%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -3% what you keep after slip
Net edge-3%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate74%67W / 24L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$137per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 50% +$9
crypto 44% +$6
sports 6% +$20
other 0% −$3
economics 0% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-3.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 13 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 91 +6.7% -3.4% 74% 24% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -3.4% 24% -9.3%
10% -12.7% 22% -18.0%
15% -21.1% 22% -25.9%
20% -28.9% 22% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
67% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +7% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +19% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$13 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

597d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses67 / 24
Open positions1
Markets (closed)91 / 92
History coverage597d
Avg bet$137
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 30? Yes 100¢ 100¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? Jun 15 $51 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? Jun 09 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? May 26 $52 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 13? May 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? May 10 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? May 06 $100 +$1 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 2? May 02 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 25? Apr 26 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 18? Apr 23 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 12? Apr 14 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 9? Apr 11 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? Apr 03 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? Apr 01 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 23? Mar 26 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 20? Mar 22 $98 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 18? Mar 18 $100 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? Mar 12 $99 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? Mar 04 $150 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 16? Feb 26 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 13? Feb 13 $149 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 7? Feb 08 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6? Feb 06 $148 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? Feb 06 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 4? Feb 05 $147 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 2? Feb 03 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 1? Feb 02 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 29? Jan 30 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 24? Jan 25 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,400 on January 1? Jan 05 $141 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 30? Dec 31 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on December 18? Dec 19 $146 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 11? Dec 12 $145 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 4? Dec 04 $144 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on December 1? Dec 02 $142 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on November 29? Nov 30 $128 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $100,000 on November 24? Nov 25 $140 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 17? Nov 19 $209 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $102,000 on November 14? Nov 15 $211 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 13? Nov 13 $199 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $110,000 on November 11? Nov 12 $215 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $106,000 on November 8? Nov 11 $205 $0 +0%
Ravens vs. Dolphins Nov 01 $15 −$15 -100%
UTEP vs. Kennesaw State Oct 29 $8 −$8 -100%
Commanders vs. Chiefs Oct 28 $12 −$12 -100%
49ers vs. Texans Oct 27 $22 +$13 +61%
Vikings vs. Chargers Oct 24 $18 −$18 -100%
Buccaneers vs. Lions Oct 21 $40 +$2 +4%
Steelers vs. Bengals Oct 17 $7 +$16 +233%
Brewers vs. Dodgers Oct 17 $25 +$16 +61%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $52,000 on June 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $52 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $70,000 on June 13? BUY No 100¢ $51 17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 8? BUY No 100¢ $52 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 19? BUY No 100¢ $52 41d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on May 13? BUY No 100¢ $101 48d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on May 8? BUY No 100¢ $101 53d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on May 5? BUY No 99¢ $100 56d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on May 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 59d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on April 25? BUY No 100¢ $100 65d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 72d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on April 12? BUY Yes 100¢ $101 78d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 9? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 82d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 2? BUY No 100¢ $99 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $100 90d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on March 23? BUY No 100¢ $98 98d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 20? BUY No 100¢ $98 101d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 18? BUY Yes 100¢ $100 103d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on March 11? BUY No 100¢ $99 110d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $149 115d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $54,000 on March 3? BUY Yes 100¢ $150 118d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on February 16? BUY No 100¢ $149 133d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 13? BUY No 100¢ $149 136d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 7? BUY No 100¢ $147 142d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on February 6? BUY No 100¢ $148 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on February 5? BUY No 100¢ $147 143d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on February 4? BUY No 100¢ $147 145d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $86,000 on February 2? BUY No 100¢ $145 147d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on February 1? BUY No 100¢ $146 148d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on January 29? BUY Yes 100¢ $145 151d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,500 on January 24? BUY No 100¢ $144 156d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $52.00 · official $52.00 (match) · 217 history records