Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:49:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3501…c284 sports 411 markets active 1h ago coverage 14d
BOTnot copyable ⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (69 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$96 (-3%) realized −$98 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR66%break-even
Win rate67%272W / 135L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day69.5pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$25now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$93
7 days−$134
14 days−$182
30 days−$182
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$157
sports 34% −$4
finance 13% −$5
other 7% +$1
weather 2% −$6
politics 1% −$4
world 0% +$2
culture 0% +$1
tech 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (69 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +66%
net ROI/market (all)-22.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 172 -18.7% -26.5% 66% 64% -17.5%
≤30d 407 -13.8% -22.0% 67% 66% -15.6%
≤90d 407 -13.8% -22.0% 67% 66% -15.6%
all 407 -13.8% -22.0% 67% 66% -15.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover69.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.0% 66% -15.6%
10% ← realistic here -29.5% 12% -23.7%
15% -36.3% 1% -31.1%
20% -42.5% 0% -37.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

14d coverage
Net worth$25
Realized−$98
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses272 / 135
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions4
Markets (closed)407 / 411
History coverage14d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day69.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 407 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bert Mizusawa be the Republican nominee for Senate in Virginia? Yes 79¢ 78¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? Down 62¢ 90¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+45%)
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Yes 87¢ 88¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+1%)
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $75 on June 17? Yes 81¢ 82¢ $4 $4 +$0 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 88 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$2 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$3 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $25 $0 -2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $8 +$2 +21%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9AM ET Jun 17 $17 +$3 +20%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$6 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $9 −$6 -71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$3 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +22%
ITF Zhengzhou: Priska Madelyn Nugroho vs Yufei Ren Jun 17 $1 $0 -97%
ITF Sapporo: Tori Kinard vs Yuzuha Negishi Jun 17 $1 $0 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $14 +$5 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12AM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +21%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 17 $5 −$4 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +15%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$1 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8PM ET Jun 17 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:45PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
S&P 500 (SPY) closes above $750 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11AM ET Jun 16 $10 +$2 +17%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $64,000 and $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +22%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 +$2 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on June 16? Jun 16 $30 −$30 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 16 $30 +$5 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6AM ET Jun 16 $20 +$3 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Robert Kenyon finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY Yes 87¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET SELL Up 49¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $4 1h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 62¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 70¢ $4 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 70¢ $275 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 70¢ $37 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 70¢ $0 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? SELL Down 70¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 55¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 17? BUY Down 56¢ $5 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $24.90 · official $25.21 (match) · 988 history records