Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T19:08:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
35 0x3504…d4f1 sports 165 markets active 1h ago coverage 491d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2,521 (+8%) realized +$2,485 · open +$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR49%break-even
Win rate52%81W / 75L
Drawdown79%max
Avg bet$182per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$282est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$1,331now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$210
7 days+$555
14 days+$2,492
30 days+$2,412
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 78% −$545
other 20% +$3,767
crypto 2% −$224
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +49%
net ROI/market (all)-7.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +10.2% -0.3% 60% 57% -4.8%
≤30d 81 +19.6% +8.2% 64% 60% +3.9%
≤90d 107 +1.0% -8.6% 53% 50% -6.3%
all 156 +2.0% -7.7% 52% 49% +0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.7% 49% +0.2%
10% -16.6% 49% -9.4%
15% -24.6% 48% -18.1%
20% -32.0% 46% -26.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 25% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +11% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -17% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$169 vs −$143 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

491d coverage
Net worth$1,331
Realized+$2,485
Unrealized+$36
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses81 / 75
Est. fees paid−$282
Open positions7
Markets (closed)156 / 165
History coverage491d
Avg bet$182
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown79%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 156 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) Qatar 51¢ 58¢ $320 $367 +$47 (+15%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Yes 39¢ 36¢ $214 $200 −$14 (-6%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 16¢ 19¢ $166 $200 +$34 (+20%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $156 $162 +$6 (+4%)
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score Yes 52¢ 50¢ $160 $155 −$5 (-3%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $174 $143 −$31 (-18%)
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? Yes 33¢ 32¢ $105 $103 −$2 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 54 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 Jun 23 $324 +$201 +62%
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $263 +$177 +67%
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $264 −$260 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $263 −$260 -99%
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $324 −$320 -99%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $275 −$270 -98%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $324 −$320 -99%
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $263 +$193 +73%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $264 +$236 +90%
Spread: France (-2.5) Jun 23 $253 +$185 +73%
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 22 $264 +$227 +86%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $264 −$264 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $314 +$249 +79%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 21 $101 +$74 +73%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $101 +$74 +73%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $365 −$360 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $102 +$127 +125%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoir Jun 21 $244 +$264 +108%
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $253 +$201 +79%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $304 +$213 +70%
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Jun 20 $253 +$11 +4%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $304 +$196 +65%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Both Teams to Score AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-1 Jun 20 $314 +$199 +63%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $314 +$212 +67%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $244 −$240 -98%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $244 −$240 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $244 −$240 -98%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Morocco O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $315 −$310 -98%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $315 −$310 -99%
United States vs. Australia: Both Teams to Score Jun 19 $314 −$310 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $223 +$184 +83%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $203 +$168 +83%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina: Switzerland O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $324 +$237 +73%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $233 −$230 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $224 −$220 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $213 +$233 +109%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $213 +$191 +90%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $264 +$267 +101%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 17 $213 −$10 -4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $214 +$264 +124%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $213 +$233 +109%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $264 −$260 -98%
Austria vs. Jordan: Jordan O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $213 +$207 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Iraq O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $214 +$264 +124%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $213 +$162 +76%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $213 +$176 +83%
Spread: Austria (-1.5) Jun 16 $213 −$210 -99%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $213 −$210 -98%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $213 −$210 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $61 35m
Bosnia and Herzegovina vs. Qatar: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $101 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $218 1h
Will Switzerland vs. Canada end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $107 1h
Spread: Bosnia and Herzegovina (-1.5) BUY Qatar 51¢ $325 1h
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $160 27h
Colombia vs. DR Congo: DR Congo O/U 0.5 BUY Over 51¢ $264 27h
Panama vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 58¢ $263 27h
Panama vs. Croatia: Panama O/U 0.5 BUY Over 58¢ $324 27h
England vs. Ghana: Ghana O/U 0.5 BUY Under 59¢ $263 27h
England vs. Ghana: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 61¢ $324 27h
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: Uzbekistan O/U 0.5 BUY Over 41¢ $275 27h
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) BUY Uzbekistan 55¢ $324 27h
Jordan vs. Algeria: Algeria O/U 1.5 BUY Over 57¢ $263 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 52¢ $264 2d
Spread: France (-2.5) BUY France 57¢ $253 2d
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score BUY No 53¢ $264 2d
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) BUY IR Iran 57¢ $101 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 AND Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY 54¢ $304 3d
New Zealand vs. Egypt: New Zealand O/U 0.5 BUY Over 55¢ $314 3d
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5 BUY Under 47¢ $264 3d
Belgium vs. IR Iran: IR Iran O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $365 3d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) SELL Curaçao 61¢ $264 3d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 AND Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 1.5 BUY 44¢ $102 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 AND Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Côte d'Ivoir BUY 47¢ $244 4d
Tunisia vs. Japan: Japan O/U 1.5 BUY Over 55¢ $253 4d
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $253 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 58¢ $304 4d
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 60¢ $304 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,330.81 · official $1,318.28 (match) · 354 history records