Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T22:31:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
35 0x3506…790e other 14 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$44 (+28%) realized +$44 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate57%8W / 6L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day6.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 78% +$14
sports 19% +$2
politics 3% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -2.8% -12.0% 57% 50% +0.3%
≤30d 14 -2.8% -12.0% 57% 50% +0.3%
≤90d 14 -2.8% -12.0% 57% 50% +0.3%
all 14 -2.8% -12.0% 57% 50% +0.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 50% +0.3%
10% -20.5% 36% -9.3%
15% -28.1% 36% -18.1%
20% -35.2% 29% -26.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 33% · top 2 62% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +11% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +11% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late +21% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$9 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.32 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses8 / 6
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)14 / 14
History coverage5d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day6.0
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 14 Trades
no open positions (3 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $25 −$25 -99%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $28 +$23 +81%
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 23 $11 +$6 +56%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $16 +$20 +124%
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 23 $3 −$2 -77%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $15 +$7 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$2 +16%
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 22 $4 −$3 -69%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $5 +$9 +182%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 22 $11 +$1 +9%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 21 $5 +$1 +20%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 71¢ $25 1h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $51 17h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 39¢ $8 17h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? SELL Yes 46¢ $17 17h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $7 18h
Will Jordan vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $4 20h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $20 20h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? SELL Yes $1 21h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 21h
Will Norway vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $3 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $14 23h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $22 27h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $5 32h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 32h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 43h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 86¢ $10 43h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $3 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 47¢ $14 44h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 44h
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 46h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 46h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 73¢ $6 46h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $1 47h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $1 47h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes $4 47h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 47h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele SELL Yes 99¢ $6 47h
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele BUY Yes 82¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 34 history records