Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:23:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3506…04bd crypto 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 166d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$477 (-22%) realized −$494 · open +$17
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate39%16W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit58%portable
Net worth$174now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$99
7 days−$463
14 days−$463
30 days−$463
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 75% −$273
crypto 14% −$217
world 6% −$130
sports 5% +$157
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-6.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +30.0% +17.6% 30% 30% -20.5%
≤30d 23 +30.0% +17.6% 30% 30% -20.5%
≤90d 23 +30.0% +17.6% 30% 30% -20.5%
all 41 +3.5% -6.4% 39% 29% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.4% 29% -20.8%
10% -15.3% 29% -28.4%
15% -23.5% 29% -35.3%
20% -31.0% 20% -41.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +3% · $-wt -33% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$45 vs −$48 · ×0.93 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

166d coverage
Net worth$174
Realized−$494
Unrealized+$17
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses16 / 25
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)41 / 43
History coverage166d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit58%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 24¢ 42¢ $57 $99 +$42 (+73%)
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Yes 63¢ 48¢ $100 $75 −$25 (-25%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $30 −$30 -99%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $101 +$40 +40%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $21 −$20 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$53 +52%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $21 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $132 −$130 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 +$155 +303%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $201 −$200 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $537 −$327 -61%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $31 −$30 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $10 +$156 +1519%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $102 +$111 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $61 +$137 +223%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $89 +$39 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 9AM ET Feb 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on February 4? Feb 04 $10 +$1 +7%
XRP Up or Down on January 17? Jan 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jan 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 13, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jan 14 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 12? Jan 12 $10 +$6 +61%
XRP Up or Down on January 7? Jan 06 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 7? Jan 06 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of XRP be above $2.40 on January 6? Jan 06 $2 −$1 -42%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on January 6? Jan 06 $5 +$2 +41%
Ethereum Up or Down on January 6? Jan 06 $10 +$4 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down on January 5? Jan 05 $10 +$6 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jan 04 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 4, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jan 04 $5 +$3 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jan 04 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jan 04 $2 −$1 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jan 04 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 3, 8PM ET Jan 04 $1 $0 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $58 2h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 63¢ $101 2h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $30 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 22h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $101 29h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $141 38h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 39h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 71¢ $101 40h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $154 41h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 44h
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 44h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 2d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 52¢ $101 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 2d
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $101 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 99¢ $206 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 78¢ $201 3d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 24¢ $31 4d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 10¢ $31 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 24¢ $199 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $166 4d
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $506 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $213 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.96 · official $173.96 (match) · 67 history records