Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:49:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x3506…94f9 crypto 690 markets active 0h ago coverage 31d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 30d only
✗ bot/MM pace (92 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$1,900 (-20%) realized −$1,901 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -30% what you keep after slip
Net edge-30%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate52%373W / 346L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day92.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$34now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$107
7 days−$82
14 days−$79
30 days−$267
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$222
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (92 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-17.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 71 -40.6% -46.2% 58% 0% -14.7%
≤30d 644 -9.6% -18.2% 53% 18% -12.4%
≤90d 719 -9.2% -17.9% 52% 19% -12.7%
all 719 -9.2% -17.9% 52% 19% -12.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover92.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -17.9% 19% -12.7%
10% ← realistic here -25.7% 14% -21.1%
15% -32.9% 9% -28.7%
20% -39.5% 6% -35.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$3 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

31d coverage
Net worth$34
Realized−$1,901
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses373 / 346
Open positions1
Markets (closed)719 / 690
History coverage31d ⚠
Avg bet$14
Trades / day92.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 719 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET Down 97¢ 100¢ $33 $34 +$1 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 75 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 10:45AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:30PM-11:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 7, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 7:00PM-7:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 10:00AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:00PM-9:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 8:00PM-8:15PM ET Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 17 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET Jun 16 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET Jun 16 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET Jun 14 $33 +$1 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:45PM-9:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 24h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00PM-12:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 41h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:45PM-11:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:45AM-5:00AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $33 4d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $33.92 · official $33.92 (match) · 3500 history records