Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T16:51:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x350b…cb12 sports 18 markets active 0h ago coverage 3d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$4 (-12%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate47%8W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day12.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 3d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$3
sports 49% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-28.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -21.3% -28.8% 47% 29% -20.0%
≤30d 17 -21.3% -28.8% 47% 29% -20.0%
≤90d 17 -21.3% -28.8% 47% 29% -20.0%
all 17 -21.3% -28.8% 47% 29% -20.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover12.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.8% 29% -20.0%
10% -35.6% 24% -27.7%
15% -41.9% 18% -34.7%
20% -47.6% 6% -41.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 46% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -34% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.54 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

3d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses8 / 9
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)17 / 18
History coverage3d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day12.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 17 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoffs Paper Rex 65¢ 62¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo Jun 15 $3 $0 +4%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $3 $0 +5%
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $2 +$1 +38%
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -15%
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Jun 15 $1 $0 -16%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $5 $0 +5%
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London Jun 14 $1 +$1 +85%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -99%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +18%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play Jun 13 $2 +$1 +40%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1 −$1 -61%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $4 +$1 +30%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $1 4m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 71¢ $1 26m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL EDward Gaming 55¢ $1 37m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL XLG Gaming 99¢ $1 48m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY XLG Gaming 83¢ $1 50m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 43¢ $2 54m
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 42¢ $1 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 2 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 42¢ $1 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $3 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo SELL XLG Gaming 37¢ $1 1h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming - Map 1 Winner BUY EDward Gaming 71¢ $2 2h
Valorant: Paper Rex vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof BUY Paper Rex 65¢ $1 11h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY EDward Gaming 57¢ $1 12h
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs EDward Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playo BUY XLG Gaming 44¢ $1 12h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 12h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? SELL Yes 15¢ $1 12h
Will Spain be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 12h
Will France be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $5 12h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $5 13h
Valorant: G2 Esports vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playoff BUY G2 Esports 62¢ $2 24h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London SELL Leviatán Esports 96¢ $2 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $1 33h
Valorant: Leviatán Esports vs Team Heretics (BO3) - VCT Masters London BUY Leviatán Esports 51¢ $1 33h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 40h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 99¢ $1 40h
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play SELL EDward Gaming 99¢ $3 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner SELL FUT Esports 32¢ $0 2d
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Play BUY EDward Gaming 38¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 94¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.96 · official $0.96 (match) · 42 history records