Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T14:24:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
35 0x350b…ea6b world 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 467d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$35 (+7%) realized +$35 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +16% what you keep after slip
Net edge+16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$21per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$8now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% +$1
other 32% −$2
politics 4% +$36
sports 3% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)+16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.3% -10.7% 40% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 13 -0.5% -10.0% 31% 0% -9.9%
all 24 +28.7% +16.4% 54% 4% -2.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.4% 4% -2.8%
10% +5.3% 4% -12.1%
15% -4.9% 4% -20.6%
20% -14.2% 4% -28.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 93% · top 2 95% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +58% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.67 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×11.94 per $1 lost it wins $11.94
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

467d coverage
Net worth$8
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Open positions1
Markets (closed)24 / 25
History coverage467d
Avg bet$21
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 24 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? No 84¢ 84¢ $8 $8 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $4 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $37 +$1 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $44 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $2 $0 -8%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $4 $0 -4%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 07 $40 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 06 $80 −$2 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $37 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $18 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 04 $1 $0 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 04 $37 +$1 +2%
Will the Edmonton Oilers win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jun 20 $1 $0 +3%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 20 $2 $0 +1%
Fed increases interest rates by 25+ bps after June 2025 meeting? Jun 19 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 55-60% of the vote in the South Korea election? Jun 06 $2 $0 +1%
Will Ukraine win Eurovision 2025? May 19 $2 $0 +3%
Canada wins the most gold medals in 2025 Special Olympics? Mar 14 $51 $0 -1%
Will Trump's approval rating be between 47.0% and 47.4% on March 14? Mar 14 $5 +$36 +679%
Will Elon tweet 450-474 times March 7-14? Mar 13 $15 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win La Liga? Mar 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will Trump's approval rating be less than 47.0% on March 14? Mar 12 $15 $0 +2%
Will Bayern Munich or Bayer Leverkusen advance in the UCL Round of 16? Mar 12 $14 +$1 +4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $33 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $41 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 10h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $0 11h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $4 11h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $11 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $24 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $2 22h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 92¢ $37 25h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $0 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $3 30h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $3 32h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes $2 38h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes $2 39h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $6 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 47h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $5 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $41 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $41 2d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $41 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $41 12d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL Yes $4 12d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 13d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY Yes $2 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 71¢ $40 13d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 71¢ $40 13d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 58¢ $5 14d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 56¢ $12 14d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $8.35 · official $8.35 (match) · 87 history records