Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T02:26:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

35
0x350d…6d5b
other · 251 markets active 2h ago
0.0score
−$7 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)8%
Wins / losses21 / 230
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)251 / 251
History coverage220d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day2.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%
Chart Positions 0 History 251 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 13 $1 $0 +1%
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? Jun 13 $1 $0 -29%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $1 $0 -2%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? Jun 11 $2 $0 -3%
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El Jun 11 $1 $0 -6%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $1 $0 -3%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele Jun 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? Jun 09 $1 $0 -3%
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $1 $0 -3%
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi Jun 08 $1 $0 -12%
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? Jun 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang Jun 06 $1 $0 -2%
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election by less than 3%? Jun 04 $1 $0 -4%
Will Xavier Becerra finish first in the 2026 California Governor prima Jun 04 $1 $0 -2%
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? Jun 03 $1 $0 -3%
Will o1 launch a token by March 31, 2027? Jun 03 $1 $0 -5%
Israeli forces enter Nabatieh by June 7? Jun 02 $1 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic or OpenAI IPO first? Jun 02 $1 $0 -7%
Will Propr launch a token by December 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -4%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Pope Leo XIV by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1 $0 -9%
GMGN FDV above $4B one day after launch May 30 $1 $0 -2%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri May 30 $1 $0 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $1 $0 -1%
Will Cursor be acquired before 2027? May 29 $1 $0 -2%
Claude 4.8 released by June 30? May 28 $1 $0 -3%
US x China tariff agreement by June 30? May 28 $1 $0 -22%
Citrea FDV above $150M one day after launch? May 27 $1 $0 -12%
Solstice FDV above $100M one day after launch? May 26 $1 $0 -1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 26 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump speak to Reza Pahlavi in May? May 25 $1 $0 -2%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? May 25 $1 $0 -3%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the May 23 $1 $0 -2%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $5.0T by December 31? May 23 $1 $0 -4%
Will OpenAI IPO by June 30 2026? May 22 $1 $0 -0%
Will Russia enter Huliaipilske by May 31? May 22 $1 $0 -5%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 21 $1 $0 -1%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 21? May 21 $1 $0 -2%
Nothing Ever Happens: March May 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Drake have the top 3 albums on the Billboard 200? May 20 $1 $0 -4%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? May 19 $1 $0 -0%
Will Neymar play in the World Cup? May 19 $1 $0 -2%
Will Trump announce a U.S.-China AI Safety Channel? May 18 $1 $0 -2%
Will Anthropic have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 18 $1 $0 -3%
Will Russia enter Vozdvyzhivka by May 31? May 16 $1 $0 -1%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 16 $1 $0 -2%
Will China announce a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22? May 15 $1 $0 -4%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 15 $1 $0 +8%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 37% −$3
politics 25% −$2
world 15% −$1
tech 7% −$1
crypto 7% $0
finance 3% $0
economics 3% $0
sports 2% $0
culture 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 85¢ $1 1h
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? SELL Yes 69¢ $1 1h
AI model scores ≥ 90% on FrontierMath Benchmark before 2027? BUY Yes 96¢ $1 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 84¢ $1 1h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 95¢ $1 25h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 91¢ $1 25h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 91¢ $1 25h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 25h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 84¢ $1 2d
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El SELL Yes 90¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 85¢ $1 2d
Will Karen Bass win the first round of the 2026 Los Angeles Mayoral El BUY Yes 95¢ $1 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? SELL No 84¢ $1 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect SELL No 92¢ $1 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 85¢ $1 3d
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect BUY No 93¢ $1 3d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele SELL Yes 96¢ $1 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 90¢ $1 4d
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Peruvian presidential ele BUY Yes 99¢ $1 4d
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 91¢ $1 4d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $1 5d
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi SELL Yes 84¢ $1 5d
Will a new Gemini flagship be released by June 12, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $1 5d
Will Nicoletta Romano win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral electi BUY Yes 94¢ $1 5d
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? SELL No 97¢ $1 7d
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang SELL Yes 95¢ $1 7d
Will SpaceX raise between $60B and $70B in its IPO? BUY No 98¢ $1 7d
Will Nithya Raman finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Ang BUY Yes 96¢ $1 7d
Will President Trump attend the NBA Finals? SELL Yes 91¢ $1 8d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 71¢ $1 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -5.8% -14.8% 9% 0% -14.6%
≤30d 50 -3.8% -13.0% 4% 0% -12.9%
≤90d 151 -3.4% -12.6% 8% 1% -12.6%
all 251 -2.7% -12.0% 8% 1% -11.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover2.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.0% 1% -11.9%
10% -20.4% 0% -20.4%
15% -28.1% 0% -28.1%
20% -35.1% 0% -35.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 525 history records